LIVE Gold Prices $  | E-Mail Subscriptions | Update GoldSeek | GoldSeek Radio 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
Latest Headlines

Gold & Silver Price Manipulation: The Greatest Trick Ever Pulled
By: Ronan Manly, Bullion Star

Gold & Gold Stocks Ripping. What's Next?
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

Asian Metals Market Update: July-23-2019
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

Silver Seeks to Catch Up With Gold
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

GoldSeek Radio: Bill Murphy and Bob Hoye
By: Chris Waltzek, GoldSeek Radio

Bull or Bear? The Market’s Message
By: Plunger

Gold Market Update - “so far so good”
By: Clive Maund

Investors Blinded by Greed, but Not for Much Longer
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

Precious Metals Update Video: Gold Monthly Chart breaking out
By: Ira Epstein

FT's Martin Wolf: Who cares about the prices of useless metals and market rigging?
By: Chris Powell, GATA


GoldSeek Web

Is The Low In For Gold Yet?

 -- Published: Monday, 27 August 2018 | Print  | Disqus 

By Avi Gilburt

For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which I analyze as a proxy for the gold market. I also believe that gold can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun.

While I have gone on record as to why I do not think the GLD ETF is a wise long-term investment hold, I still use it to track the market movements. For those that have not seen my webinar about why I don’t think the GLD is a wise long-term investment, feel free to review my webinar on the matter.

Since it seems that some of you have been confused by what my perspective for 2018 has been when it comes to GLD, I would like to take a moment to outline it again so we can all be clear:

As far as my expectation for the metals, when we came into 2018, I was quite bullish the metals as they had a strong 1-2, i-ii set up to the upside. I have noted many times that if a chart that presents a long-term bullish perspective, such as metals, provides a shorter-term bullish potential set up, I will always defer to that set up as my primary expectation. That is what I did with the metals coming into 2018. But, I provided a clear guide that this will remain a strong perspective only if GLD remains over 119. I noted quite clearly that if GLD were to drop below 119, it would make me question that immediate perspective. 

Moreover, when GLD then broke below 117.40, I said many times that this immediate bullish set up will now take months to resurrect. I also noted that I thought the 113 region would likely be tested, and if broken, would suggest that GLD would not bottom until we reached the 105-109 region. Thus far, this seems to be what is playing out. 

And, as I said last weekend:

As the market has certainly followed through to the downside as outlined above, the potential for seeing that 105 region has increased. But, first, I want to see the market bounce back up towards the 115-116 region. While I am also tracking the potential that we struck a bottom to gold this past week in the overnight market, I don’t see that as the higher probability at this time. Rather, the market will have to prove that to me with an impulsive structure through the 116.50 region. So, I will be watching the next rally quite closely for the structure it develops up to the 115-116 region resistance. Should it be clearly corrective, then I will be looking down for a fifth wave drop to the 109 region, with the potential for an overly emotional reaction as deep as the 105 region.

In the seven years since I have been writing publicly, anyone who has closely followed me knows that I am neither bull nor bear. Rather, I simply follow what the market is telling me. So, when I turned bearish on metals in late 2011, many thought me to be wrong, or simply crazy. And, when I turned strongly bullish again at the end of 2015, many thought me to be wrong, with fewer people thinking I was crazy.

Now, when I was very bullish coming into 2018, many seemed to be quite happy about that. But, they seemed to have retained that view of me all the way down, rather than listening to the me or the market. You see, once the market breaks a support, one has to recognize that something has changed, and you must change your perspective along with it. And, when the market broke 117.40, I changed my perspective, wherein I looked for a drop down to the 113 region, and potentially even as deep as the 105-109 region. Yet, many viewed me still as being bullish in the smaller time frame all the way down.

This brings me to yet another point about market analysis and trading/investing. You must know and understand the time frames with which you are dealing. For example, while I was still “bullish” based upon the much larger degree perspectives, my shorter to intermediate term perspectives certainly changed when we broke 117.40. And, the closer we get to our lower targets, the more you will see me turn towards the bullish side of the market again, just as I did towards the end of 2015.

Remember, markets are non-linear environments, and one has to align their thinking with such an environment. So, I sincerely hope this assists those who read my analysis in understanding how to view the perspectives I present in my write ups.

This past week, one of my members noted a comment made by a well followed market pundit. The comment reiterated a sentiment that seems to be making the rounds regarding gold. It seems that the reason that gold has been dropping precipitously is because millennials don’t care about gold. Rather, according the common theme today, the millennials are more interested in novel investments like cryptocurrencies, which is what has been driving demand away from precious metals.

I have one question for all of those who believe in this ridiculous perspective: Have you looked at the two charts lately?

Gold has been dropping since April and the crypto-currencies have been dropping since January. This is one of those occasions where my third-grade teacher’s wisdom rings true once again: put brain in gear before engaging mouth. This is one of the problems I have with this type of analysis. People say things that may sound good to the masses, but that simply does not make it true.

So, allow me to present an alternative perspective which actually aligns itself with price trends. If the assumption is that the millennials are willing to pay more for something that is rising, which has taken money away from gold which has been declining, then it is quite obvious what that something is: alcohol. After reading this article in Fortune, it became abundantly clear that it was not the buying of crypto-currencies that has caused gold to drop, but the fact that millennials are paying more to get their buzz. This reason at least aligns well with the two price trends and certainly makes a lot more sense than the reasons espoused by the pundits above.

As far as the GLD is concerned, as long as we remain below the 115/116 region and do not see an impulsive structure breaking out through that resistance, I am looking for a lower low before a long term bottom is struck. Moreover, that low can even be as deep as the 105 region, wherein we have an a=c target for this larger degree 2nd wave we have been mired within for the last 2 years. And, should we be able to see a strong break out in the coming two weeks through the 116.50 level, then it opens the door to gold having bottomed. But, unfortunately, there are still a number of miners that will likely take a bit longer until they complete their pullback.

The fact that the market has dropped as deeply as it has can either be a point of frustration for you, or a huge opportunity. Much depends on how you control your emotions and view the market. But, I would strongly suggest you view this larger degree pullback as an opportunity to own assets in this complex at prices you may not again see in your lifetime.

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the GLD, GDX, YI, NEM & ABX.


Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and founder of (, a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Monday, 27 August 2018 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source:

comments powered by Disqus


Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 

© 1995 - 2019 Supports

©, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


The views contained here may not represent the views of, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers., Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.