Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain with Oil
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

Gold Stocks Remain in Downtrend but Uranium Stocks on the Cusp of New Bull Market
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

Sunsets in the Land of U.S. Dollar Hegemony
By: Michael Ballanger

Precious Metals Sector: It’s 2013 All Over Again
By: Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Rugby Initiates Drilling at San Antonio Gold Project, Colombia
By: Rugby Mining Limited

Merk Research - US Equity Markets
By: Merk Research

Silver Looks Poised To Move Soon
By: Hubert Moolman

Which Precious Metals Are Likely To Be Better Investments During The Next Market Crash?
By: Steve St. Angelo

Wall Street Keeps Cool As Tariff Threat Grows
By: Rick Ackerman

Silver Guru Video: “The End of Empire and End of Fiat Currencies”
By: GoldCore

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Gold, Silver, and USD Index - Three Important “Nothings”


 -- Published: Wednesday, 12 September 2018 | Print  | Disqus 

Today’s analysis is going to be different than the other ones. We usually discuss what happened on a given day, week, or month and we elaborate on what it changed and what it didn’t change in case of the outlook for gold, silver, and mining stocks. But not today. Today, we are going to focus on what didn’t happen. At the first sight it seems that this means that there was no new signal. That’s not the case. The three important “nothings” that we will discuss in today’s article have important implications for the following days. That is if one knows where to look.

 

Let’s start with the first chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

 

Nothing Changed in the Gold:Silver Ratio

 

http://www.goldseek.com/news/2018/9-12pr/1.png

 

The gold to silver ratio broke above the 2003, 2008, and 2016 highs and it didn’t move back below them. In this case, “nothing” means that the breakout is being verified and with each passing day when the ratio is above the previous highs, the continuation of the rally becomes more and more probable.

 

Moreover, since the rallies in the ratio tend to be sharp, it means that we can expect the continuation of the move that’s very visible. This most likely means a big decline in silver.

 

No Changes in Silver

 

http://www.goldseek.com/news/2018/9-12pr/2a.png

 

And by saying “no changes”, we mean practically no changes in terms of the daily closing prices. Silver moves back and forth on an intraday basis, but ultimately it still ends the session at about $14.15 - $14.20. At least that’s what we saw in the last 5 sessions.

 

That’s interesting, because this decline (and many other declines) are characterized by periods of very high volatility that are followed by periods of very low volatility and then the cycle repeats, with no “average volatility” weeks. The pauses that we saw previously took place in early July, late July and early August and then in late August (ok, in case of the latter the volatility was higher than previously).

 

Taking the above 3 cases into account, we see a very specific pattern. The lower the volatility before the move, the bigger the volatility during the move i.e. the more profound the decline is.

 

The biggest decline took place just before the middle of August and the back and forth movement that preceded it was the calmest period in many weeks and months. The only case when silver was calmer is… right now. Consequently, we may be just before the biggest short-term decline of 2018. And perhaps of the decade.

 

Still, knowing how silver likes to provide fake signals just before big declines, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a one final upswing that will get people unnecessarily excited. So, even if we see a sudden $0.50 rally shortly, it will not be a bullish signal by itself. Conversely, if such a move was accompanied by weak mining stock performance, it would be a perfect bearish confirmation. Naturally, such a brief rally is not something that we expect to see, but if it happened, it would not be surprising – it would be within the definition of “normal” in case of silver and its declines.

 

Overall, the current silver price projection is very bearish.

 

Still No Changes in the USD Index

 

http://www.goldseek.com/news/2018/9-12pr/3a.png

 

Finally, we would like to emphasize that nothing really happened in case of the USD Index. It continues to trade back and forth above the neck level of the reverse head-and-shoulders formation. The formation is therefore active and has profoundly bullish implications. It indicates a move to 102 – 103, which will likely trigger a huge decline in the precious metals sector. As we discussed earlier this month, there are multiple other factors that point to the massive decline in the PMs and the situation in the USDX simply confirms them.

 

Summary

 

Summing up, it’s very likely that the pause in the precious metals market is over and the next big move down is already underway. We entitled our September the 4th, 2018 analysis Gold and Silver’s Stormy September. The current pause is most likely the naturally occurring calm before the storm. A profitable storm.

 

Thank you.

 

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager

Sunshine Profits - Gold & Silver Investment

 

* * * * *

 

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Wednesday, 12 September 2018 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2018



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.