By Ross Norman There is probably no more irritating an adage than the old Wall Street one which says �no one rings a bell at the bottom or top of a market� � but it does highlight the purpose or value of making a trading call - or if you prefer (as it is the season for it) � in making a forecast. No one wants to be too early in calling a bottom in gold as your career would then be aligned with those slightly unhinged permabulls that have been calling for a massive move up in gold year after year - and been permawrong. Nor do you want to be too late - because that would make you, well plain dull. So, let me try and define a �ding dong� moment for you. When can we say that gold is quite definitively in a bull run�? Firstly, let�s just accept that gold does go into very extended periods of hibernation and these can be very lengthy - who can forget the 19 year stretch between 1980 and 1999 with prices and volatility eroding together? And the seven-year period from the all-time high in September 2011 has been no less painful, with gold variously described in the media as �unloved� at best, or �disdained� at worst. It�s kind of hard to shake off the winter or the sense that anything resembling a recovery is anything other than a temporary retracement � then fooled again. Whilst the bright start to the year has been encouraging, we aren�t hearing any bells just yet. Asset allocators often tend to throw a pile at assets like gold in January, before moving onto other things - and gold flat lines again. In December 2018 Sharps Pixley saw gold price strength in GBP being sold into - this is normal in the early stage of a bull run. Tired investors often take advantage of a price spike to take profit. And then there comes the increase in scrap sales - both fully expecting the price to revert south again. 2019 has started differently for us � we continue to see some good selling but also some large buying coming through. This suggests to us that investors may be starting to see the price strength as being a more semi-permanent thing, just as it was from 2000 to 2011. And buying on price strength would be confirmation to us that sentiment towards gold has seen a seismic shift. Sadly we can only be wise after the event, but its certainly looking very 'constructive' And then in come the momentum algos, the self-fuelling good news stories � and off to the races we go with year on year double digit gains. But we are not there yet. Where are we going with this � Oh yes, at what�s the number where we can say that gold has quite definitively broken out - well we would suggest $1360- which would be topping the highs seen early last year and in 2015. See chart below... | 
