LIVE Gold Prices $  | E-Mail Subscriptions | Update GoldSeek | GoldSeek Radio 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but not Stocks
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

Market Bides Time Ahead of More Fed Twaddle
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

Precious Metals Update Video: Gold waiting for FOMC tomorrow
By: Ira Epstein

Asian Metals Market Update: March-19-2019
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

Keynes Was a Vicious Bastard
By: Keith Weiner, Monetary Metals

SWOT Analysis: Goldcorp Chairman Ian Telfer’s $12 Million Retirement
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Gold and Silver Are Feeling Frisky
By: Dave Kranzler

Is The Stock Market Finally Topping?
By: Avi Gilburt

Why This Rally Smells Funny
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

Technical Scoop: March-17-2019 -- Markets, Precious Metals & More
By: David Chapman

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Gold and Gold Stocks Stop Short of Bull Market, Again


 -- Published: Wednesday, 6 March 2019 | Print  | Disqus 

By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

The recent rally showed quite a bit of promise.

Gold stocks surged past their long-term moving averages while breadth indicators surpassed all prior bear market peaks (excluding 2016). 71% of the HUI and 81% of GDXJ closed above the 200-day moving average.

GDX and GDXJ looked to be on their way to $25 and $37, with Gold approaching $1360/oz and those breadth figures on the way to hitting 90%.

However, the stock market rebound pushed past its initial resistance and precious metals reversed course yet again before hitting those targets.

Other than 1985-1987 there has never been a bull market in precious metals without their simultaneous outperformance of the stock market.

Gold stocks and Gold especially have trended lower against the stock market since the end of December. The price action suggests this relative weakness should continue over the days and weeks ahead. If the ratios in the chart below lose the 200-day moving average then the next strong support becomes the 2018 autumn lows.

Gold vs. Stock Market

It was also disappointing that Gold peaked prior to touching $1360/oz. This leaves a noticeable lower high on the chart.

Meanwhile, Silver did not confirm Gold’s rise in February. It formed a double top as twice it failed at a confluence of resistance at $16.00/oz.

Gold & Silver Weekly Candles

Turning to the gold stocks, we find the price action of the past two weeks is similar to the peaks in summer 2017 and January 2018.

GDX (top) & GDXJ (bottom)

February 2019 figures to mark at least an interim peak in precious metals. The next key support for Gold and the gold stocks are the 200-day moving averages.

If the gold stocks can maintain recent breadth gains then the 200-day moving averages could mark an important low within a fledgling uptrend. If not, then a retest of the 2018 lows (especially in the gold stocks and Silver) becomes a stronger possibility.

As we noted last week, the near-term outlook for the stock market is bullish and in the current context that is negative for precious metals which cannot breakout or begin a bull market until the Fed turns from a pause to rate cuts.

Plenty of values remain in the mining equities and we should see more come about as spring beckons.

Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Wednesday, 6 March 2019 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2019



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


Map

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.