LIVE Gold Prices $  | E-Mail Subscriptions | Update GoldSeek | GoldSeek Radio 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

GoldSeek.com to Launch New Website
By: GoldSeek.com

Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse Part 2?
By: Hubert Moolman

Gold and Silver Are Just Getting Started
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Silver Makes High Wave Candle at Target – Here’s What to Expect…
By: Clive Maund

Gold Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On
By: Avi Gilburt

U.S. Mint To Reduce Gold & Silver Eagle Production Over The Next 12-18 Months
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report

Gold's sharp rise throws Financial Times into an erroneous sulk
By: Chris Powell, GATA

Precious Metals Update Video: Gold's unusual strength
By: Ira Epstein

Asian Metals Market Update: July-29-2020
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

Gold's rise is a 'mystery' because journalism always fails to pursue it
By: Chris Powell, GATA

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Gold & The Bond Market Supernova


 -- Published: Tuesday, 2 April 2019 | Print  | Disqus 

By: Stewart Thomson 

 

1.   There’s a time for gold stocks to rally… and a time for consolidation and retracement.  Please click here now. We have joy, we have fun, we have gold price seasonality in the sun?

2.   To view seasonality on the daily gold chart, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge.

3.   The COMEX price of gold is determined mainly by commercial bank traders and hedge funds reacting to physical market supply versus demand.  Currently, mine supply is relatively constant, central banks are net buyers, and the scrap market is stable.

4.   With supply essentially fixed, the seasonal ebb and flow of demand is mainly what moves the price.

5.   Roughly speaking, physical market demand strengthens from August until February and it weakens from February to August.

6.   It’s April now, so higher price enthusiasts need patience.

7.   Events related to the “fear trade” in the West can upset the seasonality apple cart, but a US-China trade deal seems imminent, there is still some time left in the US business cycle’s bull run, and the Fed’s recent actions are likely to reinvigorate stock buybacks.

8.   Unfortunately, in the short and medium term, there’s not much related to the Western fear trade that would “juice” gold ETF or COMEX contract demand enough to make up for the current seasonal physical market slackness.

9.   Trump is a business-oriented president, and the private sector in America is quite healthy.  He’s supporting that health.  In contrast, the government sector (in America and most of the Western world) is a horrifying mess. 

10.        Trump, like his presidential predecessors, has lorded over a massive rise in government spending and debt.  Unfortunately for Trump, he just happens to be president when the government’s ability to borrow ever-more money will soon meet a brick wall.  Legendary hedge fund manager Ray Dalio believes the government may have only two years of “sand in the hourglass” before the demand for US T-bonds fails to match the supply. 

11.        I’ve suggested the US government could stagger forwards for another 3-4 years before a bond market supernova event occurs.  Regardless, the bottom line is that the next financial markets meltdown is set to be a government crisis much more than a private sector crisis.  The government’s dollar is like a corporation’s stock, and it will burn as its bond market burns.

12.        I’ve also predicted that unlike the late 1930s crisis that was followed by US war with Germany, Japan, and Italy, this crisis could cause a war within America, pitting the rich against the poor.  It could get quite ugly, especially for citizens with no gold.

13.        An institutional gold buying frenzy would occur in even the mildest version of this projected scenario.  A collapse of the US bond market would smash other Western government bond markets too.

14.        In a government bond market crisis, all roads lead to gold!

15.        Also, QE doesn’t work in this type of crisis, because it’s no longer a booster shot for private sector stocks, businesses, and bonds. 

16.        In 2008-2014, QE was mostly deflationary.  When it’s used again, it will be used to fill a demand gap for government bonds.  In that situation, QE is highly inflationary and could even become “hyperinflationary”.

17.        Please click here now.  Double-click to enlarge this GDX chart.  The weak demand season for gold has only been underway since February, so patience is required.

18.        Regardless, the price action of GDX and its leading component stocks has been impressive.  Most of the strong season gains are holding and the price action is essentially sideways now.

19.        More “bump and grind” trading is expected but the gold mining stocks market is generally very healthy.

20.        How should investors deal with the weak demand season for gold in regards to GDX and gold stocks in general?  Well, for one possible solution, please click here now.  Double-click to enlarge this hourly bars swing trades chart for GDX.

21.        My www.guswinger.com trade alert service can help investors ease the weak season doldrums.  I use triple-leveraged ETFs like NUGT, JNUG, DUST, & JDST… so nobody gets bored!  I also take all the trades myself, but only after I send them by cell phone text and email to all the happy subscribers.

22.        I also recommend items like bitcoin (which is up about 15% this morning), and I’m introducing bond market trades for my main www.gracelandupdates.com newsletter.  That’s partly to get everyone ready for the coming US government bond market supernova explosion.  It’s also to help investors understand the more mundane bond market price drivers so they get modestly and consistently richer while waiting for “the big bang”.

23.        Please click here now.  Double-click to enlarge.  TLT-NYSE is a bond market ETF.  The next signal will be a sell, which means interest rates will rise in the short term.  That’s likely because institutional investors see a US-China trade deal as imminent, and so they are moving money from bonds to stocks. 

24.        Because investors are taking more risk now, fear trade demand for gold is softening at a time when love trade demand is seasonally soft.  This is just short-term noise.  A bond market supernova event lies ahead.  During normal times, higher rates are usually mildly negative for gold.  During extraordinary times featuring a US government bond market wipeout, rates soar but an institutional buying frenzy means that gold market investors need to prepare for vastly higher prices!

 

Special Offer For Website Readers:  Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I’ll send you my free “Riding The Range!” GDXJ and SILJ report.  I highlight how to play the weak season range for these ETFs and for six exciting junior miners!

 

Thanks!!

Cheers

St

Stewart Thomson 

Graceland Updates

 

Note: We are privacy oriented.  We accept cheques, credit card, and if needed, PayPal.

 

Written between 4am-7am.  5-6 issues per week.  Emailed at aprox 9am daily.

   

https://gracelandjuniors.com    

www.guswinger.com  


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Tuesday, 2 April 2019 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2019



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


Map

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.