I am hoping that the title to this article will mark the local top to the rally off the December 2018 lows in Bitcoin. (smile) But, that does not change our perspective that it is likely that Bitcoin has resumed its bull market run.
As we came into 2019, Ryan Wilday and I have been publishing articles about Bitcoin, with our ideal targets for the initial rally off its December 2018 lows pointing to the $6000-7000 region before a top forms. And, as we now find ourselves in our target region, we now can count the minimum number of waves in Bitcoin to mark a near term top. Therefore, as I write this article while Bitcoin is hovering around $6,050, we are still looking a bit higher in the near term, but with more caution than prior articles.
Using our Fibonacci Pinball method, we often see the top of a rally at the 200% extension off waves 1 and 2. That level is calculated to be $5725, which means we have moved beyond our standard extension. Yet, the structure was telling us this would likely occur months ago, which caused us to set our targets at least at $6000, with the potential to push as high as $7,000. Moreover, and most importantly, we have now likely moved beyond the critical level signalling commencement of a bull market.
What this means for most of those trading Bitcoin is that you will likely see another buying opportunity at lower levels than where we reside today, as we expect a retracement once this rally completes its Elliott Wave structure. And, once we break $4675, it will likely confirm a near term top, and the start of wave 2 retracement, which may last anywhere from a few weeks to a few months. We will adjust this support level should we continue to see higher extensions in the coming weeks. But, for now, that is our signal level to begin to look for another buying opportunity.
And, to reiterate what we mentioned at the start of this article, we now see indications that the long term bull market in cryptos has resumed, provided Bitcoin can hold support in the coming wave 2 correction.
Since our job is to track market sentiment, it is quite clear that this rally has now generated loud bull voices once again. Perma bulls are feeling vindicated and we’re seeing less articles critical of crypto-currency being published across the web. Most expect that a new bull market is born, as do we. In fact, some that have never previously traded cryptos have started to consider this asset class.
But it isn’t that easy. RN Elliott, the discoverer of the Elliott Wave structure, told us in 1936 that 2nd wave retracements crush the hope of bulls, and make many believe that the bear market has returned.
Robert Prechter put it best in The Elliott Wave Principle:
"Second waves often retrace so much of wave one that most of the profits gained up to that time are eroded away by the time it ends. . . At this point, investors are thoroughly convinced that the bear market is back to stay."
The time is coming for cryptos soon. However, before that time approaches, bears will roar again, and bulls may even retreat back to silence. But, given the strong impulsive extension in Bitcoin off the December low, we see strong probability that, despite the impending correction we expect, whether it starts from the $6K or the $7K region, Bitcoin has started a long climb to our long term $65,000 target.