The last three years have been extremely difficult for metals enthusiast. If you speak with them, you would assume that gold has been going down for the last three years. Well, at least that is the impression you would get based upon their “sentiment.”
But, in fact, all gold has been doing for the last three years is move sideways. In other words, it has been consolidating. Yet, during that consolidation, sentiment among investors has soured to where it is akin to a bear market.
Moreover, over the last three years, we have had three different break out set ups in the complex. Yet, each time, the market has failed to capitalize on those set ups. And as I write this article, gold has another break out set up developing. Will it follow through on this one? This I cannot tell you with certainty.
My job as an analyst is to highlight opportunities within the markets I follow, and provide parameters to those opportunities. We base our analysis on probabilities, and for this reason, I am unable to tell you that something will certainly happen. Unfortunately, too many market participants view the market as black and white, whereas financial markets are non-linear environments wherein certainty is an impossibility.
In my last update, I outlined that if the GLD can provide us with a 5th wave higher, it would be a strong indication that the tide is turning in sentiment. And we got that 5thwave. At this point in time, as long as the GLD holds over 122, and then rallies strongly over 127.25, that could open the door to a major rally in gold that points us to at least the 138 region, but more preferably, up to at least the 145 region, with the path shown on the attached daily chart. And, of course, as the market rallies, we will continue to move up our supports for our stops. Remember, risk management should be a very important part of portfolio management. Otherwise, you are relying on the most destructive four letter word in the investment world: HOPE.
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Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave analyst and founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net, a live trading roomfeaturinghis analysis on the S&P 500, precious metals, oil & USD, plus a team of analysts covering a range of other markets. He recently founded FATRADER.com, a live forum featuring some of the top fundamental analysts online today to showcase research and elevate discussion for traders & investors interested in fundamental rather than technical analysis.
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