-- Published: Tuesday, 13 August 2019 | Print | Disqus
Short Term Update
Short Term Update:
In the overnight session we moved lower early to reach a low of 1499.40, but gold has now surged up to the 1520.00 level!
On the intraday chart the drop from 1522.40 to the current low of 1499.40 looks to be a small corrective pattern.
If it is complete at the 1499.40 low then gold is now heading above the 1522.40 level.
The intermediate term picture: We continue to rally in an incomplete wave *iii* and within wave *iii*, we could still working on wave $iii$ of *iii*.
We have now reached our projected endpoint for all of wave $iii$, so we need to be on guard for its completion and the start of our wave $iv$ correction.
The good news: At the moment we do not have any signals that wave $iii$ is complete at the current high of 1522.40!
It could also be possible that wave $iii$ could still extend higher.
Once wave $iv$ starts it is expected to retrace between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave $iii$ rally.
Our initial target for the end of wave *iii* is :
*iii* = 1.618*i* = 1562.90
Longer term, our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii-, as shown on the Weekly Gold Chart, are:
Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.
Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!
Short Term Update
The SP500 was lower in Fridayís trading session. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures were down about 21 points.
IMPORTANT: We will likely be adopting our alternate count in the next 24 to 48 hours, but we wait for one more drop below the 2822.12 low. This count is much more negative.
Until that happens, we will stick with our shaky preferred count. If it is correct we should still be rallying in a subdividing wave (iii) that has initial projection of:
(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3711.83.
In our preferred count the current drop is a correction of the rally from 2728.81 to 3027.98, in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:
50% = 2878.40
61.8% = 2843.09
We have reached/exceeded our 61.8% retracement level so if our preferred count is to remain valid we need to move higher from here in the start of wave -iii-.
In this alternate count it could be now possible that all of wave (b) of iv is complete at the 3027.38 high and that we have started to fall sharply in wave (c) of iv, which a minimum target of 2346.50, which is the wave (a) low.
Trading Recommendation: Flat.
Active Positions: Flat!
Captain Ewave & Crew
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-- Published: Tuesday, 13 August 2019 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com