LIVE Gold Prices $  | E-Mail Subscriptions | Update GoldSeek | GoldSeek Radio 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
Latest Headlines

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - May 29, 2020

The Comex Has Big Problems
By: Dave Kranzler

Scammers Exploit Pandemic to Peddle Fake Silver, Phony Collectibles
By: Mike Gleason

Silver Miners’ Q1’20 Fundamentals
By: Adam Hamilton

The Dollars And Deaths Of COVID-19
By: Bill Sardi

Fibonacci Queen and Elliott Wave King Market Proclamation
By: Avi Gilburt

Asian Metals Market Update: May-29-2020
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

Silver and Gold: Balancing More Than 100 Years Of Debt Abuse
By: Hubert Moolman

Precious Metals Update Video: Market cycling money out of tech, Gold is acting very good
By: Ira Epstein

HOUSTON WE HAVE A PROBLEM: Dow Jones Index Totally Disconnects From The Employment Data
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report


GoldSeek Web

How I Know If I Am Wrong About The Equity Market

 -- Published: Tuesday, 17 September 2019 | Print  | Disqus 

By: Avi Gilburt

Several weeks ago, the market was in a precarious posture, and had an opportunity to drop down to my next lower targets between 2600-2700SPX. But, it invalidated the set up to point us down there for now, and began pointing back up towards resistance.

As I said in my last article on the SPX several weeks ago:

Over the last week, we were giving the S&P 500 an opportunity to prove that it was either going to provide us with a 1-2 downside structure to start a c-wave, or morph into a b-wave triangle before that c-wave began. However, when the market broke out slightly over 2939SPX on Friday, it signaled that it may not yet be ready to immediately begin that c-wave down.

For those of you that do not understand Elliott Wave analysis, please allow me to clear something up. As I have said so many times before, I have not found any other analysis methodology which provides an understanding of market context which exceeds that of Elliott Wave analysis. Moreover, Elliott Wave analysis does not provide any 100% guarantees. Rather, it provides us with probabilistic expectations based upon the market structure.

So, when the market dropped from 2100SPX to 1800SPX in early 2016, the larger degree pattern context told us to prepare for a major market rally pointing over 2600SPX. And, when the market broke down below 2880SPX in the fall of 2018, it told us to prepare for a 20% correction.

At this time, the higher probabilistic patterns suggest that the bull market off the 2009 lows has not yet completed, as you have likely read in my articles for many months, if not years. In fact, for those that read my articles closely, you would know that I am still expecting one more multi-year rally to the 3800-4100SPX region before the bull market off the 2009 lows completes.

However, before we begin that last segment of the bull market, I still think the market structure suggests that the higher probability expectation remains for the market to drop down towards the 2600-2700SPX region over the coming months. And, even with this rally we have experienced taking us back up towards the all-time market highs, I am not yet convinced I need to revise that expectation.

As I also concluded in my last article from several weeks ago:

Now, in taking a step back and putting all this action into perspective, I want you to focus upon the attached monthly chart. As you can see, my long-term perspective for many years has been that we can rally up towards as high as the 4100SPX region in the coming years before this bull market off the 2009 lows completes. That still leaves plenty of room on the upside over the coming years, and is approximately 33% higher than where we are now trading. Yet, we also see the potential for the market to decline 20-30% from where we are trading at this time. That basically means we are now stuck in the middle.

So, rather than becoming aggressive in either direction at this time, I am going to maintain a bit more patience and allow the market to clarify its intentions over the coming months before I am willing to commit to the next 20%+ move. For now, my expectation remains that we will see much lower levels before the last leg of the bull market begins to take us to the 3800-4100 region.

So, of course, the question many ask me is, what will it take for me to capitulate and look up towards the 3800-4100SPX region sooner rather than later? My detailed guidance on this question was presented to the members of ElliottWaveTrader in my weekend report. But, allow me to provide you some highlights.

Based upon my calculations, 3115-3150SPX is a region of resistance overhead. If -- again, this is a big “if” right now -- the market is able to continue in this current trend to complete 5 waves up towards that resistance region, and it then pulls back correctively from that region, and then rallies up over the top of the initial high for that 5-wave structure, I would likely have to view the bull market rally as resuming and pointing us up towards the 4000 region within the next few years.

I want to stress again that there are many factors which do not support this more immediate bullish potential. I discussed this in more depth in my weekend report to my subscribers. But, the market will have to prove itself to me with that break out set up for me to switch gears at this time.

You see, the beauty of Elliott Wave analysis (as enhanced by our Fibonacci Pinball methodology) is not just the accuracy of identifying market turning points as well as precise targets. It is not just in its ability to outline where we are in the larger degree structures, and provide us with market context which is not available through any other methodology. Rather, one of the main advantages of using our Fibonacci Pinball method is that it provides you with objective indications as to when you need to revise your perspectives.

So, as long as the market does not provide us with the break out set up noted above, I must maintain an expectation for a return to the 2600-2700SPX region in the coming months.

Avi Gilburt is founder of
Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave analyst and founder of, a live trading room featuring his analysis on the S&P 500, precious metals, oil & USD, plus a team of analysts covering a range of other markets. 

| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Tuesday, 17 September 2019 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source:

comments powered by Disqus


Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 

© 1995 - 2019 Supports

©, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


The views contained here may not represent the views of, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers., Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.