LIVE Gold Prices $  | E-Mail Subscriptions | Update GoldSeek | GoldSeek Radio 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

How to Deprogram Your Friends & Family from the Cult of Fiat Currency
By: Jeff Clark, GoldSilver

Real Rates Drive Gold Higher
By: Craig Hemke, TF Metals

Gold New All-Time Highs and Beyond
By: By Hubert Moolman

Stop Believing The 'Economy' Is The Same As The Stock Market
By: Avi Gilburt

Kirkland Lake Gold Update
By: Chris Marchese, Chief Mining Analyst at GoldSeek

Asian Metals Market Update: July-8-2020
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

Mphm! – Gold as a lifestyle decision for the times
By: Michael J. Kosares, USA Gold

The Bizarre Mathematics Of How Negative Interest Rates Create Stratospheric Profits
By: Daniel R. Amerman

China Comes Alive & Junior Miners Surge
By: Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates

Gold Getting Closer to a Breakout
By: Gary Savage

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Gold not in Real Bull Market Yet


 -- Published: Wednesday, 25 September 2019 | Print  | Disqus 

Is Gold now back in a bull market? Most gold bugs think so and are quick to proclaim that.

But, could Gold remain in a secular bear market? It hasn’t made a new all time high in 8 years and the perma-bull, financial asset loving crowd certainly believes so.

This is semantics because what really matters is making money and nothing else. 

With that said, Gold is not in a real bull market yet. We can still make money but the point is, when Gold enters a real bull market we will make a lot of money and quite easily.

Simply put, other than from 1985-1987, Gold has never been in a real bull market without outperforming the S&P 500. 

Take a look at the chart below which plots Gold (black) and Gold against the S&P 500 (blue).

 

Gold (black) & Gold vs. S&P 500 (blue)

Gold has performed well in nominal terms since 2016 despite underperforming the stock market and that is because its exceptional strength against foreign currencies.

Some Gold-hating, financial-asset loving perma-bulls have compared the recent move in Gold to the one in the mid 1990s. They didn’t do the proper research and analysis because this time around Gold made a new all-time high against foreign currencies (FC). 

That is an extremely strong positive divergence whereas in the mid 1990s (and mid 1980s) Gold/FC showed a negative divergence. 

 

Gold & Gold/Foreign Currencies

In both intermarket and relative terms, the key relationship for Gold moving forward is Gold against the US stock market. The ratio is trying to carve out a long-term bottom. 

 

Gold vs. S&P 500

If the ratio can break current resistance and trend towards 0.60, then it will not only mark a multi-year high but will confirm a long-term bottom. Such a move would coincide with further positive fundamental developments for Gold and put the metal on a path to at least retesting its old all-time high at $1900/oz. 

A multi-year advance in the ratio confirms a “real” bull market in Gold and we would likely see Gold advancing past $2000/oz. 

There is a scenario in which Gold and gold stocks perform well even if Gold is not outperforming the stock market. We’ve experienced that this year as well as in 2016. 

However, the larger point is Gold has to outperform the US stock market before it can enjoy a multi-year bull market and a new all time high.

In the meantime, precious metals have corrected as expected but are experiencing an oversold bounce. The correction has created new values and new opportunities in some companies.

 Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

https://thedailygold.com/


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Wednesday, 25 September 2019 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2019



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


Map

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.