LIVE Gold Prices $  | E-Mail Subscriptions | Update GoldSeek | GoldSeek Radio 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - January 24, 2020
By: GoldSeek.com

Gold/Silver Ratio, SPX, Yield Curve and a Story to Tell
By: Gary Tanashian

Gold-Miner Valuations
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Research

Gold 2nd Leg Up Beginning (video update)
By: Gary Savage

“Cash Is Trash” In 2020, Hold Gold In a Diversified Portfolio – Dalio at Davos
By: Mark O'Byrne

Precious Metals Update Video: Good action in the gold market
By: Ira Epstein

The Seduction of Betting Against the Sure Thing
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

The Next Catalyst for Gold
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

The Us Dollar Index : The Most Important Chart on the Planet
By: Rambus

NOT-Predictions for 2020
By: Gary Christenson, Deviant Investor

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
When Will GDX Break-out?


 -- Published: Thursday, 12 December 2019 | Print  | Disqus 

 - Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

If you follow our work, you are aware of our growing optimism on gold stocks in 2020.

As we’ve written, the fundamental setup in 2020 should be bullish for precious metals.

Meanwhile, the technical setup for gold stocks is one of the best we’ve ever seen. 

Gold stocks (and GDX specifically) are consolidating in a bullish fashion within a nearly 7-year long base that, if broken, will give way to an explosive, impulsive advance. That would usher in increasing speculation, and most everything (including the turds) will fly. 

The question is when will that move begin, and when will GDX (and GDXJ) break to the upside from those bullish bases?

The recent move was expected as a shift in Fed policy from hikes to cuts has almost always produced substantial gains in the gold stocks. A resumption of rate cuts or rising energy prices that trigger an increase in inflation expectations could be the reason for the next move.

That aside, I have a market-based answer.

GDX (and GDXJ) will begin the move that leads to a breakout when the correction in the metals is over.

We plot the daily bar charts of Gold and Silver below.

Gold has a strong confluence of support in the $1410-$1415 area which includes the 38% retracement from the 2018 low, the 50% retracement from the May 2019 low, and the 200-day moving average ($1408 and rising). 

Silver has a strong confluence of support around $16.00, which has been a key level for four years. Its 200-day moving average sits at $16.24 and the 62% retracement from its 2018 low is slightly above $16.00. 

Gold & Silver

If the metals trade down to those targets, then the miners, which appear to be in a bullish consolidation or correction, will not break resistance as depicted in the chart below.

GDX, GDXJ, SIL

Until the miners break above their December highs on a weekly basis, then we can assume that the sector remains in correction mode. 

It would be ideal to see the metals test those targets (shaking out speculative longs in Gold especially), and then miners break above their December highs.

In any case, do not wait for the move to a breakout before buying. Get positioned soon by buying quality juniors on weakness. 

We continue to focus on identifying and accumulation the juniors with significant upside potential in 2020.

Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Thursday, 12 December 2019 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2019



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


Map

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.