By: Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader
I know that many investors follow correlations as if they were gospel. But, do they really understand what a correlation represents?
You see, markets are not linear in nature. While two different markets may be traveling in the same direction for a period of time, unless you understand each chart on its own, how will you ever know when a seeming correlation will break? And, if you assume that they will align indefinitely, how long does it take for you to cut your losses in determining that a seeming correlation has broken?
Remember, when you are following a correlation, all you are doing is assuming a relationship will continue indefinitely in a linear manner, despite the fact that markets are simply not linear in nature.
As an example, back in 2016, I began warning the members of Elliottwavetrader that there are many well followed correlations that are setting up to break down. And, I based this upon the underlying charts we were tracking across the markets.
Then in January of 2017, ZeroHedge published an article regarding break downs in market correlations wherein Morgan Stanley publicly noted that “we haven’t seen a shift this severe in over a decade.”
Yet, there are times where the underlying charts support correlations that many follow. And, at this point in time, I am tracking a seeming correlation that seems to support the underlying theory of most market participants. And, that is the correlation between the US Dollar and the metals market.
First, I would like to begin with our long-term analysis on the US Dollar. Back in the middle of 2011, the DXY was hitting levels as low as the 73 region as the Fed was throwing QE at the market, which made everyone certain that the USD was going to crash.
However, despite all the expectations regarding what QE was going to do for the dollar, I began calling for a multi-year rally in the DXY with a target in the 103.50 region. For those counting, that is an expectation of a 41% rally in the DXY. Ordinarily, that is a huge move in and of itself for the DXY. But, with the Fed pushing QE, many viewed this as a laughable expectation.
Well, as we now know, the DXY rallied from that time until it struck a high of 103.82 five and a half years later.
Yet, at this time, and based upon the current structure I have been tracking in the DXY, we seem to be setting up a decline phase which can take the DXY back down towards the 84 region within the next few years.
Most specifically, back in early October, the DXY moved into the target region we identified to our members as completing a potential major topping structure. Since then, the DXY has provided us with a 5-wave decline off the high struck in early October. When we see a 5-wave decline off a target top, it most often signals a change of trend based upon our Elliott Wave analysis. For this reason, we think that the US Dollar has begun a major decline phase, which will likely take us into the 2021 time-frame.
Moreover, with the metals currently setting up for what can be a multi-year rally as well (as I discussed in my prior metals articles), this is one commonly held correlation belief that seems to be supported by the underlying charts we track.
While we will continue to track these charts in our ElliottWaveTrader.net service as we progress over the coming years, for now this is what these two charts are telling us on their own, and not just based upon the commonly held belief in their correlations.
See chart illustrating our wave counts on the US Dollar Index (DXY).