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Into Year End With Gold And Silver

 -- Published: Monday, 30 December 2019 | Print  | Disqus 

Craig Hemke

With just one, holiday-shortened day to go, it appears that Comex gold and silver will actually finish 2019 with "the best annual gains since 2010". That was a bold forecast when we made it back in January. That it has turned out correct brings more relief than satisfaction.

As we move to wrap up 2019, here's one last look at this year's primary guide. Recall that we had "The Generally Accepted Narrative" in 2017 and "The Three Themes" of 2018. This year, we expected the year to be similar to 2010 and laid it all out here:

What kind of gains were we expecting? Given the stout chart resistance at $1480-1520 gold and $20 silver, those levels seemed logical targets. While prices matched or exceeded those levels earlier than expected (in early September!), they subsequently fell back and left many folks scrambling and scared that a deep plunge was coming.

At TFMR, we held firm. We expected a low near $1440 in November and price got to $1445. We then expected a December rally and we've certainly seen that, too. The hope was that we could still finish the year in that $1480-1520 range...and here we are!

(Again, though, for your host this comes with more relief than satisfaction. After spending 5+ years with price below $1360, it was rather audacious to predict a sudden breakout in 2019. My trolls would have been relentless in their criticism had I been wrong...and I would have felt somewhat foolish, too. So, frankly, I'm just glad that the year is over.)

Next week, I plan to write up a lengthy "roadmap" post for 2020 and we'll make it public then. As you might imagine, I expect another good year for the Comex metals. No, it very likely will NOT be 2011+9. But extended gains in the metals will promote significant fiat-making opportunities for anyone wishing to play along and this will be a major focus in the months ahead.

For today, let's just take stock of where we are heading into the new year. For Comex Digital Gold, price is at the very top of our projected target. On the charts below, you can see the significance of the $1480-1520 price range...and you can also see the current Bank effort to cap price at $1520 into year end.

Of course, The Banks will continue to fight us every step of the way in 2020 and this will have an impact on the continuing rally. In just the past month alone, they've added over 100,000 additional contracts to the total contract supply (open interest). Through this more than 15% dilution in the supply of contracts, The Banks have been able to contain the price gain over the same time period to just 4%. Expect the non-constrained Banks to continue to create more contracts (taking the short side and feeding them to Spec longs) in 2020.

If you don't understand this process, please see this simple and straightforward explanation that we wrote in April of 2017:

Comex Digital Silver is also encountering stiff resistance near $18. Though a close at this level tomorrow pegs a 16% gain for 2019, we should all expect better performance in 2020. Again, we'll write about that next week but, for now, besting $18 and then $18.50 holds the key to a return to $20. From there, the next target will be $22. IF WE CAN GET ABOVE THERE in 2020, then the extremely difficult resistance of $26 will come into view.

In summary, 2019 was a very good year...provided you were a part of TFMR and NOT a part of the mind-numbed mainstream masses who listened to The Banks and their sycophant media...all of whom expected interest rate hikes and plunging gold in 2019. As 2020 begins, you're again being told that "all is well" and that "the Fed has things under control". However, all is NOT well and The Fed does NOT have things under control. Recognizing this will allow you to see some out-sized gains in 2020...if you plan ahead. Part of that planning should include membership at TFMR. You can learn more here:

Happy New Year to all. Rest now and relax. However, as the calendar flips, be prepared for a wild and volatile 2020.


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 -- Published: Monday, 30 December 2019 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source:

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