-- Posted Wednesday, 19 December 2012 | | Disqus
| Close | Gain/Loss |
Gold | $1669.30 | -$3.50 |
Silver | $31.10 | -$0.54 |
XAU | 160.90 | -1.00% |
HUI | 429.71 | -0.70% |
GDM | 1249.21 | -0.93% |
JSE Gold | 2217.74 | -13.27 |
USD | 79.30 | -0.05 |
Euro | 132.44 | +0.19 |
Yen | 118.64 | -0.33 |
Oil | $89.51 | +$1.58 |
10-Year | 1.800% | -0.027 |
T-Bond | 148.03125 | +0.71875 |
Dow | 13251.97 | -0.74% |
Nasdaq | 3044.36 | -0.33% |
S&P | 1435.81 | -0.76% |
The Metals:
Gold edged up to $1676.66 in Asia before it fell back to $1664.34 in early afternoon New York trade, but it then bounced back higher in the last two and a half hours of trade and ended with a loss of just 0.21%. Silver climbed to $31.74 in Asia, but it then dropped back to as low as $31.022 in New York and ended with a loss of 1.71%.
Euro gold fell to under €1261, platinum lost $2.50 to $1590, and copper fell 4 cents to about $3.60.
Gold and silver equities fell over 1% in the first couple of hours of trade before they bounced back higher midday, but they still ended with modest losses on the day.
The Economy:
Report | For | Reading | Expected | Previous |
Housing Starts | Nov | 861K | 875K | 888K |
Building Permits | Nov | 899K | 876K | 868K |
Mortgage applications drop in latest week: MBA Reuters
Republicans put squeeze on Obama in "fiscal cliff" talks Reuters
Tomorrow brings Initial Jobless Claims, GDP, Existing Home Sales, the Philadelphia Fed, Leading Economic Indicators, and the FHFA Housing Price Index.
The Markets:
Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/
Oil rose and the U.S. dollar index fell after the euro climbed higher on “better-than-expected German business confidence data and increasing optimism about debt-plagued Greece.”
Treasuries rose as the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P traded mostly lower on worries about the lack of a resolution to the fiscal cliff.
Among the big names making news in the market today were FedEx, GM, Markel and Alterra, Kodak, Comcast, and Knight.
The Commentary:
“It has been several years since I last posted a chart of the Euro-Yen currency cross. Quite frankly, there has been no reason to monitor it in my opinion, not with the ongoing crisis that had engulfed the Euro Zone through most of this now fading year. However, with the strong move lower in the Yen of late, I have been examining this cross once again to see if it can provide us with any signals of upcoming events.
You will note its collapse back in 2008 - this was the year in which the big Japanese Yen Carry Trade was unwound as nearly every hedge fund on the planet was taking part in that particular trade. When it was time to unwind it during the panic, there was literally no one on the other side of all those trades involving the Carry.
During that Carry trade season, as this currency cross moved higher, the price of commodities in general tended to track right along with it. Gold in particular was strongly influenced by this cross. As it moved higher, indicating the presence of a strong appetite for RISK, gold moved right along with it to the upside.
If, and this is a big IF, we begin to see this appetite return ( and remember, it first occurred because hedge funds were looking for a way to obtain yield in a strongly low interest rate environment - Sounds familiar doesn't it?), then this cross should continue to move to the upside.
The chart shows a picture of a market that looks as if it is very close to ending the 4 year downtrend. If this cross can end this month of December above the 25% Fibonacci Retracement level shown on the chart, then I think we can begin to say with a great deal more confidence that the risk trades are going to return in a much larger way in 2013. I would be about 99% convinced of that if the cross does indeed move up past the 38.2% retracement level.
If this move is for real, and this cross continues higher, it should indicate that any deflation fears are behind the market and that the Central Banks have won their war against it ( at least for the time being). The cost of that victory however will be a repeat of what we saw leading up to the credit crisis of 2008 - namely, soaring commodity prices driven higher by huge speculative inflows from cash rich hedge funds chasing yield. Who among us can forget $150 crude oil back then?
Either way, gold will benefit strongly, and silver will as well, if this is becomes the trade of 2013.
Time will tell. As I like to say, The Central Banks had better be careful of what they wish for - they are liable to get it and more!”- Dan Norcini, More at http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/
GATA Posts:
Lars Schall: Bundesbank refuses candid and complete answers about gold
'Capital Account' program with GATA's Murphy and Powell posted at SilverSeek
Geithner was told of Libor fears in 2008
The Statistics:
As of close of business: 12/18/2012
Gold Warehouse Stocks: | 10,958,393.253 | +3,182.85 |
Silver Warehouse Stocks: | 147,605,138.952 | +172,941.99 |
Global Gold ETF Holdings
[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]
| Product name | Total Tonnes | Total Ounces | Total Value |
New York Stock Exchange Arca (NYSE Arca) AND Singapore Exchange (SGX) AND Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) AND Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx) | SPDR® Gold Shares | 1350.519 | 43,420,543 | US$72,276m |
London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra) | Gold Bullion Securities | 139.98 | 4,500,416 | US$7,523m |
London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra) AND NYSE Euronext Amsterdam | ETFS Physical Gold | 160.13 | 5,148,483 | US$8,395m |
Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) | Gold Bullion Securities | 11.16 | 358,789 | US$599m |
Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) | New Gold Debentures | 42.45 | 1,364,715 | US$2,214m |
Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.
COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) Total Tonnes in Trust: 216.51: No change from yesterday’s data.
Silver Trust (SLV) Total Tonnes in Trust: 9,871.29: No change from yesterday’s data.
The Miners:
Timberline’s (TLR) proposed public offering, China National Gold’s talks over buying a stake in African Barrick Gold, Agnico-Eagle’s (AEM) outperformance, Endeavour Silver’s (EXK) drill results, and First Majestic’s (AG) $50 million forward sale contract were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.
WINNERS
1. Solitario | XPL +1.91% $1.60 |
2. Gold Reserve | GRZ +1.32% $3.08 |
3. Great Panther | GPL +1.27% $1.59 |
LOSERS
1. Banro | BAA-4.07% $2.83 |
2. Seabridge | SA-4.04% $17.35 |
3. McEwen | MUX-3.94% $3.66 |
Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.
Please see Yahoo’s Mining/Metals News Wire for all of today’s mining news.
- Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
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-- Posted Wednesday, 19 December 2012 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com