-- Posted Thursday, 31 January 2013 | | Disqus
| Close | Gain/Loss |
Gold | $1664.80 | -$11.70 |
Silver | $31.45 | -$0.53 |
XAU | 149.68 | -0.84% |
HUI | 393.88 | -1.14% |
GDM | 1155.80 | -1.03% |
JSE Gold | 2156.25 | -43.50 |
USD | 79.20 | -0.06 |
Euro | 135.82 | +0.17 |
Yen | 109.25 | -0.56 |
Oil | $97.49 | -$0.45 |
10-Year | 1.985% | -0.021 |
T-Bond | 143.46875 | +0.40625 |
Dow | 13860.58 | -0.36% |
Nasdaq | 3142.13 | -0.01% |
S&P | 1498.11 | -0.26% |
The Metals:
Gold saw a $4 gain at $1680.50 in Asia, but it then fell to as low as $1657.85 in New York and ended with a loss of 0.7%. Silver slipped to as low as $31.092 and ended with a loss of 1.66%.
Euro gold fell to about €1226, platinum lost $2.50 to $1677, and copper fell slightly to about $3.73.
Gold and silver equities fell about 1% in the first half hour of trade and remained near that level for the rest of the day.
The Economy:
Report | For | Reading | Expected | Previous |
Initial Claims | 1/26 | 368K | 345K | 330K |
Personal Income | Dec | 2.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% |
Personal Spending | Dec | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
PCE Prices – Core | Dec | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Employment Cost Index | Q4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
Chicago PMI | Jan | 55.6 | 50.5 | 50.0 |
U.S. Mortgage Rates Rise With 30-Year Highest in 4 Months Bloomberg
Consumer Comfort in U.S. Falls for Fourth Straight Week Bloomberg
Tomorrow at 8:30AM EST brings January’s jobs data. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected at 180,000, the Unemployment Rate is expected at 7.7%, Hourly Earnings are expected at 0.2%, and the Average Workweek is expected at 34.5. At 9:55 is Michigan Sentiment for January expected at 71.4, and at 10AM is the ISM Index for January expected at 50.5 and Construction Spending for December expected at 0.5%.
The Markets:
Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/
Oil fell on worries about energy demand after today’s jump in jobless claims.
The U.S. dollar index edged lower in quiet trade ahead of tomorrow’s jobs data.
Treasuries found slight gains as the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P traded mostly slightly lower on worries about earnings and the economy.
Among the big names making news in the market today were Facebook, InBev, MasterCard, Dow Chemical, Annaly, Time Warner Cable, AutoNation, and Scientific Games.
The Commentary:
“Yesterday silver looked as if it was setting up to make another test run at stubborn overhead resistance near the $32.50 level, the top of its recent trading range. Today - well, to put it bluntly, "nothin' doin'".
The ferocity of the retreat away from yesterday's high is a bit surprising to me given the big push higher yesterday. A couple of things - end of the month positioning is being seen in quite a bit of the markets that I regularly trade today and that is causing some pretty wild swings in price.
Secondly, the continued meltdown in the mining sector shares (HUI and XAU) is completely undermining strength in the metals over at the Comex. Any time would-be bulls get ready to make their move into the metals, they take one look at the HUI or the XAU and then go back to sleep. There is no reason to chase precious metal prices higher as long as the mining shares continue to reek.
The HUI is on track for its worst monthly close in THREE YEARS. What it will take to generate any buying of sufficient size to reverse the downtrend is unclear. Value-based buyers are present but are being overwhelmed by the non-stop selling hitting the sector. I get the sense from the price action that the shares are on the receiving end of a position among several larger players that has gone seriously awry. They are being forced out kicking and screaming but also bleeding profusely. When you continue to stretch a valuation of the HUI to gold to levels last seen more than FIVE YEARS AGO, someone is in trouble. When the overstretched rubber band finally does snap back, it will be quite fierce but as to when that might occur, I am unclear.
For now, there is still no sign of any definitive bottom in the mining sector.
For that to occur, the Comex metals are going to have to be able to cast off the share-related drag on their price and clear the top of their respective trading ranges. That has not yet been able to occur.
As you can see on the price chart below, the RSI failed, once again, to take push past the 60 level. That means the sideways range trade remains in effect.
Yesterday the market pushed strongly through the 50 day moving average; today it plunged right back down below it. It does remain at this point above the 200 day moving average; a slightly friendly development unless proven otherwise.
I am not sure what it will take to push these metals higher. Yesterday there was a rash of shortcovering and some fresh buying based on the lousy Q4 GDP number that had traders convinced that any talk of premature ending of QE4 was nonsense. Today, there was some second guessing that even with the higher unemployment claims number. Some are looking past today's numbers towards the payrolls number and are expecting to see some decent numbers. If the number comes in higher than expected, I would guess the metals will see further pressure on the idea that the Fed will cut short the QE program in spite of the backward looking GDP number. Remember, markets look forward not backward.
If the number comes in as expected or below consensus expectations, I think we can look for the metals to breathe a sign of relief as it will reinforce the idea that while the economy might be recovering somewhat, it is still not able to stand on its own two feet without continued easy money policies.
That means, we wait and see what the morrow brings. Sentiment in the shares is rotten; absolutely rotten but it can still get worse. Some keep pointing to this fact as proof that a turnaround is near. They might be right. The problem is you will need more than lousy sentiment to start a sustained rally - you need bullish enthusiasm. Haven't seen any sign of that yet.”- Dan Norcini, More at http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/
GATA Posts:
Rick Ackerman: Why isn't gold higher?
The Statistics:
As of close of business: 1/29/2013
Gold Warehouse Stocks: | 11,008,536.086 | +4,050.90 |
Silver Warehouse Stocks: | 32,810,409.678 | +565,217.27 |
Global Gold ETF Holdings
[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]
| Product name | Total Tonnes | Total Ounces | Total Value |
New York Stock Exchange Arca (NYSE Arca) AND Singapore Exchange (SGX) AND Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) AND Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx) | SPDR® Gold Shares | 1328.092 | 42,699,501 | US$71,600m |
London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra) | Gold Bullion Securities | 160.87 | 5,172,177 | US$8,637m |
London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra) AND NYSE Euronext Amsterdam | ETFS Physical Gold | 157.50 | 5,063,824 | US$8,257m |
Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) | Gold Bullion Securities | 11.16 | 358,789 | US$599m |
Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) | New Gold Debentures | 42.45 | 1,364,715 | US$2,214m |
Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.
COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) Total Tonnes in Trust: 219.76: -0.46 change from yesterday’s data.
Silver Trust (SLV) Total Tonnes in Trust: 10,443.19: No change from yesterday’s data.
The Miners:
Turquoise Hill’s (TRQ) first concentrate, Banro’s (BAA) mineral resource estimate, Randgold’s (GOLD) project update, Royal Gold’s (RGLD) second quarter results, Almaden’s (AAU) mineral resource estimate, SilverCrest’s (SVL.V) new Vice President, Corporate Development, Silvercorp’s (SVM) drill results, and Alexco’s (AXU) updated mineral resource estimate were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.
WINNERS
1. Comstock | LODE +4.35% $1.92 |
2. Sandstorm | SAND +2.11% $12.12 |
3. Mag Silver | MVG +1.83% $11.14 |
LOSERS
1. Vista Gold | VGZ -5.42% $2.27 |
2. Fortuna | FSM -4.15% $4.16 |
3. Avino | ASM -4.14% $1.62 |
Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.
Please see Yahoo’s Mining/Metals News Wire for all of today’s mining news.
- Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
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-- Posted Thursday, 31 January 2013 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Erase Most of Yesterday’s Gains
