-- Posted Wednesday, 20 February 2013 | | Disqus
| Close | Gain/Loss |
Gold | $1564.60 | -$40.30 |
Silver | $28.53 | -$0.88 |
XAU | 134.57 | -5.22% |
HUI | 356.34 | -4.97% |
GDM | 1042.11 | -5.05% |
JSE Gold | 2007.25 | -61.53 |
USD | 81.06 | +0.60 |
Euro | 132.80 | -1.07 |
Yen | 106.83 | -0.05 |
Oil | $94.46 | -$2.20 |
10-Year | 2.021% | -0.005 |
T-Bond | 143.28125 | +0.21875 |
Dow | 13927.41 | -0.77% |
Nasdaq | 3164.41 | -1.53% |
S&P | 1511.95 | -1.24% |
The Metals:
Gold saw a $4.10 gain at $1609 in Asia, but it then fell throughout most of the rest of trade and ended near its late session low of $1558.64 with a loss of 2.51%. Silver slipped to as low as $28.283 and ended with a loss of 2.99%.
Euro gold fell to about €1178, platinum lost $42.50 to $1645.50, and copper dropped 5 cents to about $3.60.
Gold and silver equities fell throughout most of trade and ended with about 5% losses.
The Economy:
Report | For | Reading | Expected | Previous |
Housing Starts | Jan | 890K | 914K | 973K |
Building Permits | Jan | 925K | 918K | 909K |
PPI | Jan | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.3% |
Core PPI | Jan | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
FOMC Minutes from the fed’s January 30th meeting “said the central bank should be ready to vary the pace of their $85 billion in monthly bond purchases amid a debate over the risks and benefits of further quantitative easing.”
The fallacy of Fed ‘profits’ (and ‘losses’) MacroScope
U.S. mortgage applications fell last week as rates rose -MBA Reuters
Tomorrow brings Initial Jobless Claims, CPI, Existing Home Sales, the Philadelphia Fed, and Leading Economic Indicators.
The Markets:
Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/
Oil fell as the U.S. dollar index rose on worries about the economy and the fed that sent the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P lower.
“U.S. Treasury debt prices rose on Wednesday, even after records of the Federal Reserve's January meeting showed policymakers discussed the slowing or stopping of Fed bond purchases that are aimed at reducing unemployment.”
Among the big names making news in the market today were Chesapeake, JPMorgan, Apple, Boeing, Office Depot, and OfficeMax.
The Commentary:
“Since July of 2011, forays in gold priced in Euro terms, have been met with solid buying on approaches towards 1200. Only ONCE over that time period did gold end the week below this psychological support level. There was no downside follow through however and the price rebounded the following week moving back towards 1320 before faltering. The week is still young but the gold price has now fallen below this level with today's sharp move lower.
Some of what we are seeing today in gold is tied to selling ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes for January. Traders/Investors continue to fear a more hawkish tone to the minutes with a rising number of voices perhaps calling for an ending to the QE program sooner than expected. That remains to be seen given the extremely tenuous state of this so-called "recovery," but this is the current thinking for whatever that is worth.
It is no different over in Europe where many believe the worst is now behind the region and has been the case over here in the US, money flows are moving into equities and exiting gold for the time being. Any reversal to the downside in the equity markets there, and here as well, would change that mentality quite rapidly were that to occur.
There is a spike low down near the 1150 level made in September of 2011 that is the last line of bullish defense for the euro gold bulls should the weekly close be below the 1185 level. In a sense, this corresponds closely to the $1550 - $1530 zone on the US Dollar priced gold chart. Bulls would not want to see this level give way without an intraweek recovery as it would portend even lower prices.
As far as the US Dollar priced gold chart goes, support at $1600 was crushed with the market attracting fresh short selling on the break below last week's low just under $1600. There is no support just below today's session low on the chart until price nears $1565. Below that, should it fail, is the $1550 level. That one is a biggie. Should it not stem the bleeding, gold is going to test $1535.
Some data providers are showing that the 50 day moving average has already managed to cross below the 200 day moving average, the infamously known "Death Cross". My data does not yet show it although it will probably do so within the next day or two. Either way, technical analysts will view this as further confirmation of a bearish trend in gold prices.
The ADX that I have been including recently picked this up much sooner than the death cross occurrence itself. It continues to rise with bearish momentum increasing as it has picked up the fund flows OUT OF GOLD and FRESH SHORTING. The market has fallen rather sharply 7 out of the last 8 trading sessions, so it is perhaps due for a bit of a bounce but expect rallies to be sold unless gold can get back above $1640 for a bare minimum. Even at that, bulls will not be out of the woods until price can move past $1660 - $1665. The bears are currently in the driver's seat.
Physical market buyers of size as of yet do not seem to be interested in moving in right now. Let's see if we can spot their footprints when they do.
I should also note here that the Continuous Commodity Index or CCI, has been getting worked over rather harshly the past week. That is continuing this week. I am getting reports of several large funds and banks exiting commodities due to the sector's poor performance over the last year.
Have to hand it to the elites at the Fed - they have managed to conjure into existence with QE1, QE2, QE3 and now QE4, trillions of dollars out of absolutely nowhere without the least bit of negative impact on commodity prices (for now!). They have concocted a perfect world in which equity prices move steadily higher, interest rates remain stable at ultra low levels and commodity prices, while higher than several years ago, show no significant impact from the huge increase in liquidity.
Brace yourselves for the potential for some wild price swings when those FOMC minutes are made public.”- Dan Norcini, More at http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/
“Back on February 6th, a posting of mine said big move in gold coming. I noted my heart said up but my brain thought otherwise. I said the move shall be extensive and also a shakeout to the downside may be needed before any move above $1,700 then $1,800 could occur. It was suggested to refrain from any new gold purchases until we either broke above $1, 700 or tested the lower range of a multi-year trading range between $1,500 – $1,550.
The brain was right but the heart loss. And with that loss the nasty emails intensify while the junior resource portfolio melts away. I lost more money on paper and actual losses in the last 18 months then I ever possess in my life up until two years ago. Sadly, I must be one of the very few on the professional side as hardly a mention of being on the wrong side can be found among newsletter writers, analysts and money managers. Such is life.
With bearish momentum reaching avalanche proportions, it appears gold will need to test the low end of the 18-month trading range (Point A) before any meaningful work can be done to turn it into a triple bottom. There will be little if any support for it in the media and among professionals (except by those who sell physical gold) and its always far more fashionable to “pan” it than support it.
It would come as no surprise that a new, all-time high on the DJIA coincides with a bottom in gold (but the pain between now and then won’t go away). I still am scratching my head on how a market that rises nearly 500% over a decade gets so little interest but when it declines sharply as it done twice already in a trading range, the convoy of people calling its demise gets longer and longer. Gold is without a doubt the Rodney Dangerfield of investments.”- Peter Grandich, Grandich Letter
“My Dear Extended Family,
The pressure on gold is not permanent in any sense. This decline is, as I have told you, similar to the series of declines just before gold took off in the 70s from $400 to $887.50. Those declines then were for the purpose of the last great shake of the gold apple tree prior to the move that gained the most distance over the least amount of time.
My birthday is March 27th. By that time this decline in gold will be old history. This decline is purely to take your positions away from you, certainly in shares which today trade at historic discounts to their assets.
I can only suggest to you as strongly as possible that you need to defend yourself by doing absolutely nothing. This way you can get into the fight and prevent the shorts from taking their profits that are soon to become losses.
The biggest profits the shorts have is in your shares. As long as your company is performing well on the ground do not let the shorts have any joy. This may be the last time before gold trades in excess of $3500 that you need bite the bullet of emotional restraint.”- Jim Sinclair, JSMineset.com
GATA Posts:
Adam Taggart: Gold's regular morning mugging
Gene Arensberg's GGR: Gold futures setup becoming bullish
The Statistics:
As of close of business: 2/19/2013
Gold Warehouse Stocks: | 10,676,012.201 | - |
Silver Warehouse Stocks: | 161,023,028.394 | -493,072.44 |
Global Gold ETF Holdings
[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]
| Product name | Total Tonnes | Total Ounces | Total Value |
New York Stock Exchange Arca (NYSE Arca) AND Singapore Exchange (SGX) AND Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) AND Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx) | SPDR® Gold Shares | 1319.964 | 42,438,170 | US$67,368m |
London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra) | Gold Bullion Securities | 139.13 | 4,473,139 | US$7,077m |
London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra) AND NYSE Euronext Amsterdam | ETFS Physical Gold | 154.76 | 4,975,642 | US$8,114m |
Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) | Gold Bullion Securities | 11.16 | 358,789 | US$567m |
Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) | New Gold Debentures | 42.45 | 1,364,715 | US$2,214m |
Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: SPDR subtracted 3.011 tonnes.
COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) Total Tonnes in Trust: 219.67: -0.70 change from yesterday’s data.
Silver Trust (SLV) Total Tonnes in Trust: 10,521.57: No change from yesterday’s data.
The Miners:
AngloGold’s (AU) fourth quarter earnings, Timberline’s (TLR) permitting progress, IMPACT Silver’s (IPT.V) commencement of production at the Cuchara-Oscar Mine, and Coeur’s (CDE) definitive agreement to acquire Orko Silver (OK.V) were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.
WINNERS
1. Eurasian | EMXX +3.66% $1.98 |
2. First Majestic | AG +0.47% $17.08 |
LOSERS
1. Solitario | XPL -11.31% $1.49 |
2. Midway | MDW -9.60% $1.13 |
3. Avino | ASM -8.92% $1.43 |
Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.
Please see Yahoo’s Mining/Metals News Wire for all of today’s mining news.
- Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
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© Gold Seeker 2013
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-- Posted Wednesday, 20 February 2013 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Almost 3%
