-- Posted Wednesday, 24 April 2013 | | Disqus
| Close | Gain/Loss |
Gold | $1430.40 | +$15.50 |
Silver | $23.18 | +$0.23 |
XAU | 108.75 | +6.32% |
HUI | 284.61 | +6.98% |
GDM | 837.88 | +6.74% |
JSE Gold | 1538.78 | +45.64 |
USD | 82.96 | -0.06 |
Euro | 130.13 | +0.13 |
Yen | 100.43 | -0.14 |
Oil | $91.43 | +$2.25 |
10-Year | 1.698% | UNCH |
T-Bond | 148.21875 | +0.125 |
Dow | 14676.30 | -0.29% |
Nasdaq | 3269.65 | +0.01% |
S&P | 1578.79 | +0.00% |
The Metals:
Gold rose $15.30 to $1430.20 in Asia and dropped to $1419.30 in London before it shot up to $1432.96 in early New York trade and then fell back to $1421.43 at about 1PM EST, but it then rallied back higher in the last few hours of trade and ended with a gain of 1.095%. Silver climbed to $23.358 in Asia before it fell back to as low as $22.855 in early afternoon New York trade, but it then then rallied back higher in the last few hours of trade and ended with a gain of 1.002%.
Euro gold rose to about €1099, platinum gained $16.25 to $1426.50, and copper climbed 7 cents to about $3.16.
Gold and silver equities rose throughout most of trade and ended with almost 7% gains.
The Economy:
Report | For | Reading | Expected | Previous |
Durable Goods | Mar | -5.7% | -3.1% | 4.3% |
Durable Goods -ex trans. | Mar | -1.4% | 0.0% | -1.7% |
U.S. mortgage applications edged up last week -MBA Reuters
Tomorrow at 8:30AM EST brings Initial Jobless Claims for 4/20 expected at 351,000.
The Markets:
Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/
Oil rose after the Energy Information Administration reported that crude inventories rose 900,000 barrels, gasoline inventories fell 3.9 million barrels, and distillates rose 100,000 barrels.
The U.S. dollar index traded mostly lower as the euro found slight gains ahead of next week’s ECB meeting.
Treasuries remained modestly higher after today’s $35 billion 5-year note auction sold at a yield of 0.71% with a bid to cover of 2.86.
The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P waffled near unchanged on mixed earnings reports.
Among the big names making news in the market today were AT&T, Toyota, GM, Eli Lilly, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, Apple, P&G, Boeing, and Ford.
The Commentary:
“The mining shares are attracting value-based buying which is providing some signs of stability in this beaten-down sector. As mentioned many times on this site, it will require far more than value-based buying to take this sector strongly higher. For that to occur, it requires momentum based traders.
Just take a look at the broader equity markets and you can see what happens when these momentum buyers decide to chase prices higher.
While we might have stem the downside in the mining shares, this sector needs to prove itself technically in order to give some potential buyers the confidence that this is just not a pause before a new leg lower.
For that to occur, buyers will have to show enough conviction to take the index into the gap region shown on the price chart. They will not only need to spike it into that gap, but hold it there on a close for a bare minimum. If they can do that, it should give some bears second thoughts about hanging around excessively long and overstaying some successful trades in the mining sector.
A CLOSE above the top of the gap, near the 300 level, should bring in some momentum based buyers as it will induce some additional short covering.
I want to continue to reiterate the necessity of these mining shares to improve their technical chart pattern before the gold market can sustain any sort of extended move higher. The shares led the metal lower and more than likely they will lead the turn in the metal higher. I would also suggest monitoring holdings in the ETF, GLD, to see if investors are returning to gold.
Moving over to gold itself, I am detailing a 2 hour chart as it establishes some areas of technical interest for us. After the wild volatility of last week, we are finally seeing some signs of a market that is settling down and beginning to act in a more "civilized" fashion. By that I mean it is not swinging all over the place.
Along that line, the Gold Volatility Index, has been dropping also. It is currently trading near 21.80 after having spiked as high as 35. That confirms that the recent bout of volatility (emotional duress) is behind us for the time being.
Back to the chart - what concerns me about gold is that the strong physical demand has been able to spook some bears (Goldman cancelled its sell recommendation) but has not yet been enough to bring back those investment types that were flooding into the gold ETFs around the world and the mining shares.
The other question I have is whether or not this physical demand is going to keep up its torrid pace if prices continue to drift higher. Gold under $1400 was certainly cheap but will buyers around the globe see it that way if it climbs back towards $1470 or higher? That remains unclear.
What I believe is the more likely outcome of this is that a floor has been established in the gold market below $1390 but there is not enough investor type demand from large players to drive the market sharply higher. The outcome then is most likely a period of range bound trading with both sides looking to either sell rallies or buy dips depending on their bias towards the market.
Right now, the top of the range is near $1440. Selling is entering near this level and bullish enthusiasm is fading as the market moves higher based on the shrinking volume. With volume low, bears feel confident selling against this level since they have some wiggle room to play with the $1450 psychological level as a mental stop out point. That is a relatively favorable trade in their minds since the risk is small compared to the potential for a drift back towards $1400 and perhaps lower.
Bulls on the other hand will more than likely feel comfortable buying in near those same levels figuring that physical demand will be their ally. They do need to take the price through $1440 very soon or they are going to face some desertion in their army from the shorter term oriented day traders and scalpers.
As far as today goes, the strong pop in crude oil that has taken it above the $90 mark, along with a bit of strength across the commodity sector, most notably copper, is giving gold a boost, especially with a bit of weakness being seen in the US Dollar.
It is going to be very interesting to see if the Asian demand that we have been seeing overnight continues this evening. It cannot let up if the market is going to hold its gains especially with equities continuing their one way trip north. Blue Horseshoe apparently still loves equities and until he stops loving them, a great deal of that $85 billion from the Fed this and every month, along with that $74 - $76 billion from the Bank of Japan, is going to end up in equities instead of gold.”- Dan Norcini, More at http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/
GATA Posts:
U.S. Mint suspends some gold coin sales after demand surge
Economist Polleit acknowledges gold market rigging
India gold premiums soar as demand outstrips supply
The Statistics:
As of close of business: 4/23/2013
Gold Warehouse Stocks: | 8,345,509.319 | -237,863.908 |
Silver Warehouse Stocks: | 167,317,058.916 | +1,504,052.253 |
Global Gold ETF Holdings
[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]
| Product name | Total Tonnes | Total Ounces | Total Value |
New York Stock Exchange Arca (NYSE Arca) AND Singapore Exchange (SGX) AND Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) AND Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx) | SPDR® Gold Shares | 1097.189 | 35,275,711 | US$50,371m |
London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra) | Gold Bullion Securities | 138.13 | 4,441,056 | US$6,324m |
London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra) AND NYSE Euronext Amsterdam | ETFS Physical Gold | 152.66 | 4,908,200 | US$8,004m |
Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) | Gold Bullion Securities | 11.16 | 358,789 | US$512m |
Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) | New Gold Debentures | 42.45 | 1,364,715 | US$2,214m |
Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: SPDR subtracted 7.52 tonnes.
COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) Total Tonnes in Trust: 195.92: -0.31 change from yesterday’s data.
Silver Trust (SLV) Total Tonnes in Trust: 10,318.82: -132.19 change from yesterday’s data.
The Miners:
Solitario’s (XPL) private placement with Ely Gold, Banro’s (BAA) Sustainability Report, ITH’s (THM) gold market comments, Barrick’s (ABX) first quarter results and dividend, and SilverCrest’s (SVL.V) first quarter production figures were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.
WINNERS
1. Turquoise Hill | TRQ +16.55% $6.83 |
2. Harmony | HMY +13.20% $5.23 |
3. Tanzanian Royalty | TRX +11.15% $2.89 |
LOSER
1. NovaGold | NG -0.42% $2.39 |
Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.
Please see Yahoo’s Mining/Metals News Wire for all of today’s mining news.
- Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
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-- Posted Wednesday, 24 April 2013 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain Over 1%
