-- Posted Thursday, 5 September 2013 | | Disqus
| Close | Gain/Loss |
Gold | $1368.70 | -$25.20 |
Silver | $23.21 | -$0.32 |
XAU | 101.24 | -3.35% |
HUI | 249.09 | -3.42% |
GDM | 758.52 | -3.41% |
JSE Gold | 1295.69 | +18.75 |
USD | 82.63 | +0.50 |
Euro | 131.18 | -0.87 |
Yen | 99.88 | -0.37 |
Oil | $108.37 | +$1.14 |
10-Year | 2.979% | +0.082 |
T-Bond | 130.03125 | -1.28125 |
Dow | 14937.48 | +0.04% |
Nasdaq | 3658.78 | +0.27% |
S&P | 1655.08 | +0.12% |
The Metals:
Gold fell $12.70 to $1381.20 in Asia before it rebounded to $1399.26 by a little before 8:30AM EST, but it then dropped to as low as $1365.10 at about 2:40PM and ended with a loss of 1.81%. Silver slipped to as low as $23.02 and ended with a loss of 1.36%.
Euro gold fell to about €1043, platinum lost $19 to $1478, and copper remained at about $3.24.
Gold and silver equities fell almost 4% by midafternoon before they bounced back higher in the last half hour of trade, but they still ended with over 3% losses.
The Economy:
Report | For | Reading | Expected | Previous |
ADP Employment | Aug | 176K | 180K | 198K |
Initial Claims | 8/31 | 323K | 333K | 332K |
Productivity | Q2 | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
Unit Labor Costs | Q2 | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% |
Factory Orders | July | -2.4% | -3.7% | 1.6% |
ISM Services | Aug | 58.6 | 54.5 | 56.0 |
U.S. stimulus pullback dominates G20 economy talks Reuters
U.S. Mortgage Rates Increase With 30-Year Fixed at 4.57% Bloomberg
Tomorrow at 8:30AM brings August’s jobs data. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected at 177,000, the Unemployment Rate is expected at 7.4%, Hourly Earnings are expected at 0.2%, and the Average Workweek is expected at 34.5.
The Markets:
Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/
Oil remained higher after the Energy Information Administration reported that crude inventories fell 1.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories fell 1.8 million barrels, and distillates rose 500,000 barrels.
The U.S. dollar index jumped higher and treasuries fell on better than expected economic data that sent the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P higher.
Among the big names making news in the market today were the homebuilders, Samsung, Sprint, and Otsuka Holdings.
The Commentary:
“First of all, apologies for not being able to post this week. The vagaries in the grain markets have been making me old before my time. Then again, the volatility in most nearly anything that resembles a commodity futures market these days is becoming almost unbearable at times. There is simply too much hot money moving into and out of markets on the drop of a dime for traders to get much in the way of rest.
There are two nasty habits that I have developed over the years - one is eating; the other is sleeping. I figure if I could give up both of those, I would have more spare time on my hands than I knew what to do with. It seems I am working on giving up the latter with the markets acting in the manner in which they have of late.
A quick comment in passing - gold has surrendered its "Syria" premium. I warned of this in some posts last week. Buying gold based on geopolitical fears always requires one to be very nimble and very quick as a trader because the events can change so rapidly that gains oftentimes prove quite effervescent.
Mr. Obama's buffoonish handling of this entire matter has resulted in any fears of imminent missile attacks being quickly surrendered. Most traders are now taking a wait and see attitude. With Russia's President Putin forcefully resisting any US action, many are thinking that the crisis is going to simply fade away for the immediate future. Personally I never thought I would live to see the day in which I put more confidence in Russia's President than I did in my own nation's President.
Also, the more I learn about the nature of these so-called "moderate reformers" as our imperious leaders are dubbing them, the less I like them. Say what you will about Assad, Christian churches and individuals were generally safe under his reign. The "moderate reformers" are now butchering them. And we are supposed to be siding with them??? What kind of idiocy is that?
What this means to gold traders is that we are back to focusing on other drivers for the price of gold. That brings me to interest rates. One of the biggest headwinds that gold is facing is rising interest rates in the US. Those are coming on the heels of what many seem to feel is improving US economic data. That is translating to more of "THE TAPER". Some of you might not be old enough to remember a fun television show years ago called "Fantasy Island".
In the opening to the show each week, the little fellow ( I think his name was Tatoo or something) used to be shown looking up into the sky and shouting out the phrase, "THE PLANE, THE PLANE". Or as it is better pronounced, "DEE PLANE, DEE PLANE"!
That is what this tapering talk reminds me of. Everyone is looking around waiting for the various economic data releases and when they get them, they immediately cry out, "DEE TAPER, DEE TAPER".
Thus when we get friendly economic news, interest rates push higher as Treasuries get sold. That drives the Dollar higher on the crosses and puts pressure on the gold market. Remember, outside of the gold community, many investors view gold as a non-interest bearing asset. Thus in a rising interest rate environment, one in which real rates are not negative, gold tends to experience selling pressure. Again, I am not advocating anything here - I am merely stating the sentiment of many large investors. Gold traders need to understand this.
That being said, take a look at the following chart of the Ten Year Treasury Note. It just missed hitting the 3% mark by less than 20 basis points today! Yields have not been at this level since July 2011, more than two years ago!
This is some of the reason that gold is getting sold down today. Additionally, technical factors such as its inability to hold above $1400 are bringing in long liquidation and some fresh shorting. Shorts began hunting for stops below $1380 in the December and got them. That is bringing in more selling as stale longs are bailing out and fresh shorts are moving in.
Now that $1380 has fallen, the next level of chart support comes in at the 50 day moving average down near the $1360 - $1355 level. Bulls need to either hold it there or to quickly take it back up through $1400 to show their mettle.
Weakness in the mining shares has also been working to undermine gold as the HUI failed to extend past a strong chart resistance level near 280.
Just be prepared for more volatility as the market reacts to each and every bit of economic data/geopolitical events. No one ever said trading was easy; if it was, all of us would be busy counting our coconuts on our personal S. Pacific island.”- Dan Norcini, More at http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/
GATA Posts:
Gold imported by China from Hong Kong rose in July despite big premiums
Poland starts expropriating private pension fund assets
Jan Skoyles: How one man saved Poland's gold from the Nazis
Reserve Bank of India plans inflation-indexed savings certificates
The Statistics:
As of close of business: 9/04/2013
Gold Warehouse Stocks: | 7,025,598.833 | - |
Silver Warehouse Stocks: | 164,018,630.933 | -157,067.35 |
Global Gold ETF Holdings
[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]
| Product name | Total Tonnes | Total Ounces | Total Value |
New York Stock Exchange Arca (NYSE Arca) AND Singapore Exchange (SGX) AND Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) AND Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx) AND Mexico Stock Exchange (BMV) | SPDR® Gold Shares | 919.228 | 29,554,098 | US$40,914m |
London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra) | Gold Bullion Securities | 138.13 | 4,441,056 | US$6,085m |
London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra) AND NYSE Euronext Amsterdam | ETFS Physical Gold | 152.66 | 4,908,200 | US$8,004m |
Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) | Gold Bullion Securities | 11.16 | 358,789 | US$491m |
Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) | New Gold Debentures | 41.92 | 1,347,719 | US$1,873m |
Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.
COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) Total Tonnes in Trust: 178.17: -0.03 change from yesterday’s data.
Silver Trust (SLV) Total Tonnes in Trust: 10,533.72: No change from yesterday’s data.
The Miners:
Eldorado’s (EGO) exploration update, Timberline’s (TLR) stock offering, Revett’s (RVM) mine update, and SilverCrest’s (SVL.V) drill results were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.
WINNERS
1. Revett | RVM +14.58% $1.10 |
2. DRDGOLD | DRD +9.85% $6.47 |
3. Turquoise | TRQ +0.78% $5.17 |
LOSERS
1. Alexco | AXU -7.11% $1.96 |
2. Great Panther | GPL -7.02% $1.06 |
3. Gold Resource | GORO-5.92% $8.11 |
Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.
Please see Yahoo’s Mining/Metals News Wire for all of today’s mining news.
- Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
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© Gold Seeker 2013
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-- Posted Thursday, 5 September 2013 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Over 1%
