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Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold Gains Despite Flash Crash
By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com

 -- Published: Monday, 6 January 2014 | Print  | Disqus 

 

Close

Gain/Loss

Gold

$1238.80

+$2.40

Silver

$20.17

+$0.01

XAU

86.96

+0.38%

HUI

203.87

+0.19%

GDM

610.28

+0.45%

JSE Gold

1070.12

-16.42

USD

80.64

-0.25

Euro

136.36

+0.48

Yen

95.99

+0.63

Oil

$93.43

-$0.53

10-Year

2.961%

-0.034

Bond

128.40625

+0.40625

Dow

16425.10

-0.27%

Nasdaq

4113.68

-0.44%

S&P

1826.77

-0.25%

 
 

 

The Metals:

 

Gold climbed $9.91 to $1246.31 in early Asian trade before it fell back to $1235.82 by a little before 8AM EST and then rose to a new session high of $1248.18 at about 10:10, but it then “flash crashed” down to $1211.86 at 10:14 and was halted for 10 seconds following a “velocity logic” event - Gold Flash Crashes, Halts Trading Zero Hedge.  The yellow metal quickly rebounded however, and ended not far from its pre-crash high with a gain of 0.19%.  Silver rose to as high as $20.335 and ended with a gain of 0.05%.

 

Euro gold fell to about €908, platinum gained $6 to $1414, and copper remained at about $3.37.

 

Gold and silver equities rose over 1% about a half hour into trade before they fell back off along with gold’s flash crash, but they still ended with modest gains on the day.

 

The Economy:

 

Report

For

Reading

Expected

Previous

Factory Orders

Nov

1.8%

1.7%

-0.5%

ISM Services

Dec

53.0

54.6

53.9

 

U.S. private sector activity growth slows slightly in December: Markit Reuters

Senate poised to confirm Janet Yellen as Fed chair Reuters

 

Tomorrow at 8:30AM EST brings the Trade Balance for November expected at -$40.4 billion.

 

The Markets:

 

Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/

 

Oil fell after Libya’s major oil field restarted production.

 

The U.S. dollar index fell on poor economic data that sent treasuries higher and the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P lower.

 

Among the big names making news in the market today were Men’s Wearhouse and Jos. A. Bank, T-Mobile, GE, and Samsung.

 

The Commentary:

 

AS those of you who regularly read this blog know, I have minced no words in mocking those whose constantly sing "Gold is being "FLASH CRASHED" by nefarious forces (usually references to the bullion banks). I have no doubt that there have been large orders that have taken prices down, sometimes during the thin trading conditions in early morning European/N America hours - what I take strong objection to is that these orders were the work of the big bullion banks. My view is that those orders were from hedge funds.

I think I have provided enough documentation to make my point so I am not going to waste any more of the reader's time in rehashing this once again other than to say that my view is that the bullion banks have been buying gold on the way down; not selling it. After all, when JP Morgan's HOUSE ACCOUNT has been the largest stopper of gold during the December gold contract's delivery process, it is a no-brainer that they were buying the metal from large speculators who were selling it. They (the bullion banks) provide resistance to gold (SELL) on the way up; not on the way down! I have written quite often on that in the past.

However, today is a great example of a legitimate FLASH CRASH. You will note that it occurred during a COUNTER TREND RALLY in gold during which the price had rallied some $65+ off the recent low.

I had remarked about the dwindling volume during this rally suggesting that it was not fresh, hot money taking long positions in gold but rather the ABSENCE OF WILLING SELLERS that had created an air pocket above the market which provided very little in the way of resistance to the recent "MELT UP" we have been watching taking place in the metal.

Index funds, rebalancing their portfolios (more exactly - lots of front running by some traders ahead of and alongside of that large index fund buying), must buy gold contracts regardless of current fundamentals in order to align their books with the new index weightings. Most traders who understand that are not going to fight that forced buying but will merely stand aside and let it happen while they wait for a higher price level against which to sell or perhaps even get long for a very short term trade.

Today, as gold rallied into an important resistance zone centered near the $1245 region, at 10:14 EST, a flurry of orders resulted in 11,662 contracts trading hands. That is no small feat! The result was a drop in the gold price of some $30 in one minute. Now my friends, THAT IS A FLASH CRASH, not the crap that these others have been telling us about. You will also note that it took place during New York trading hours while the pit session was open; it was not something that occurred during the low liquidity overnight hours. I should also note here that the size of the order to sell was so large that many traders believed it was an erroneous trade and that CME would note that. Well, CME made a statement saying that ALL GOLD TRADES WOULD STAND. So much for any notion of a bad trade!

 

Can you see the difference/distinction? Note how the volume during the UP BARS - in BLUE) continued to dry up as the market melted higher. Now look at the MASSIVE spike in volume the accompanied the huge spike in the price range!

This large selling took place during an UPMOVE in gold that has been taking place since the beginning of the year, not during a downtrending phase and the volume was ENORMOUS.

I will try to get a bit more information on this for you as the day progresses but needless to say attempting to trade something like this is not for the faint of heart. I will want to see the final volume of trade for the rest of the day as well as the data from the CME Group tomorrow to make a final assessment but needless to say, gold is now at a crossroads. If, and this will be a big, big "IF", the bulls can take price through today's high and they can do that on big volume, then gold has a very good shot at pushing up for a test of the last overhead resistance barrier noted on the chart. I would want to see a push past that level than can be maintained to convince me that the tide has finally turned in favor of the metal in regards to higher prices down the road.

The speed at which the price went down, and the speed at which it recovered, is very, very interesting. It looks as if we have a battle going on with both sides dug in for now. We'll see which side gains the advantage.

Robust physical demand from Asia has put a floor in the market for now. The big question is whether or not money managers in the West want to tie up portions of their client capital in gold for 2014 or stick with their large and lopsided exposure to equities.

My leaning at this point is that gold is now entering a range trade and will be capped on the upside with good physical offtake of the metal providing a solid floor of support on the downside. The range looks to be roughly $1250 on the top and $1200 on the bottom. A push below $1200 that changes the handle on the metal back to "11" would be negative both technically and psychologically. A push past $1265 would provide enough excitement to take price up towards a test of $1300. Western investment demand is now the key to whether or not we get the latter.- Dan Norcini, More at http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

 

GATA Posts:

 

 

India considers easing gold import restrictions

Join GATA at its reception following the Vancouver conference Jan. 20

Did the Bundesbank get even a little of its original gold back?

Koos Jansen: Unprecedented high gold demand in China in 2013

 

The Statistics:

Activity from: 1/03/2014

Gold Warehouse Stocks:

7,827,505.251

-

Silver Warehouse Stocks:

175,742,292.592

+821,241.50

 

Global Gold ETF Holdings

[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]

 

Product name

Total Tonnes

Total Ounces

Total Value

New York Stock Exchange Arca (NYSE Arca) AND Singapore Exchange (SGX) AND Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) AND Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx) AND Mexico Stock Exchange (BMV)

SPDR® Gold Shares

794.621

25,547,853

US$31,824m

London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra)

Gold Bullion Securities

138.13

4,441,056

US$5,517m

London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra) AND NYSE Euronext Amsterdam

ETFS Physical Gold

152.66

4,908,200

US$8,004m

Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)

Gold Bullion Securities

11.16

358,789

US$445m

Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE)

New Gold Debentures

41.88

1,346,506

US$1,674m

Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.

 

COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) Total Tonnes in Trust: 161.83: No change from yesterday’s data.

 

Silver Trust (SLV) Total Tonnes in Trust: 9,909.49: -49.15 change from yesterday’s data.

 

The Miners:

 

Goldcorp’s (GG) dividend, Rio Alto’s (RIOM) environmental approval, Tanzanian Royalty’s (TRX) positive metallurgical test results, Nevsun’s (NSU) drill results, Kirkland’s (KGI.TO) strategic review process, and Hecla’s (HL) exchange offer were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.

 

WINNERS

1.  Avino

ASM +4.03% $1.29

2.  Alexco

AXU +3.79% $1.37

3.  DRDGOLD

DROOY +3.63% $4.00

 

LOSERS

1.  Eurasian

EMXX -3.60% $1.07

2.  Northern Dynasty

NAK -3.50% $1.38

3.  Pretivm

PVG -3.40% $5.11

Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.

       

Please see Yahoo’s Mining/Metals News Wire for all of today’s mining news.

 

- Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

 

- Would you like to receive the Free Daily Gold Seeker Report in your e-mail? Click here

Additional Resources for today’s Gold Seeker Report can be found:

© Gold Seeker 2014

Note: This article may be reproduced provided the article, in full, is used and mention to Gold-Seeker.com is given.

 

 

Disclosure: The owner, editor, writer and publisher and their associates are not responsible for errors or omissions.  The author of this report is not a registered financial advisor.  Readers should not view this material as offering investment related advice. Gold-Seeker.com has taken precautions to ensure accuracy of information provided. Information collected and presented are from what is perceived as reliable sources, but since the information source(s) are beyond Gold-Seeker.com’s control, no representation or guarantee is made that it is complete or accurate.  The reader accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action.  Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.  Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change.  Nothing contained herein constitutes a representation by the publisher, nor a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities & therefore information, nor opinions expressed, shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, futures or options contract mentioned herein.  Investors are advised to obtain the advice of a qualified financial & investment advisor before entering any financial transaction.

 


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 -- Published: Monday, 6 January 2014 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

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