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Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Almost 2%
By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com

 -- Published: Tuesday, 15 April 2014 | Print  | Disqus 

 

Close

Gain/Loss

Gold

$1302.90

-$23.80

Silver

$19.62

-$0.37

XAU

91.89

-2.08%

HUI

223.21

-2.11%

GDM

662.51

-2.14%

JSE Gold

1501.16

-49.98

USD

79.80

+0.06

Euro

138.09

-0.10

Yen

98.17

UNCH

Oil

$103.75

-$0.30

10-Year

2.628%

-0.011

Bond

134.84375

+0.34375

Dow

16262.56

+0.55%

Nasdaq

4034.16

+0.29%

S&P

1842.98

+0.68%

 
 

 

The Metals:

 

Gold fell almost 3% to $1290.56 at about 8:30AM EST before it rallied back higher in New York, but it still ended with a loss of 1.79%.  Silver slipped to as low as $19.264 and ended with a loss of 1.85%.

 

Euro gold fell to about €943, platinum lost $22.30 to $1438.70, and copper fell 5 cents to about $2.99.

 

Gold and silver equities fell over 3.5% by early afternoon, but they then rallied back higher in the last couple of hours of trade and ended with only about 2% losses.

 

China may have 1,000 tonnes of gold tied in financing – WGC

China Gold Demand Rising 25% by 2017 as Buyers Get Wealthier

 

The Economy:

 

Report

For

Reading

Expected

Previous

CPI

Mar

0.2%

0.1%

0.1%

Core CPI

Mar

0.2%

0.1%

0.1%

Empire Manufacturing

Apr

1.3

7.5

5.6

Net Long-Term TIC Flows

Feb

$85.7B

-

$7.7B

NAHB Housing Market Index

Apr

47

50

46

 

Tomorrow brings Housing Starts, Building Permits, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and the fed’s Beige Book.

 

The Markets:

 

Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/

 

Oil ended slightly lower in mixed trade as traders monitored military operations in Ukraine.

 

The U.S. dollar index pared early gains after disappointing economic data.

 

Treasuries saw modest gains as the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P traded mixed on geopolitical and economic worries.

 

Among the big names making news in the market today were Infosys, Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, Zebra, and Google.

 

The Commentary:

 

Last evening I posted the news concerning the World Gold Council's report about Chinese gold demand for 2014. Please see that post for the details.

Also, chatter continues to surface that China's economy is slowing. Now whether or not that is indeed the case can be argued, (I tend to think that it is because of what is happening with the price of copper ) but many traders are viewing such talk as bearish for the price of the metal. The reason? If the economy slows the thinking is that there will not be as much money around with which to buy gold. Along this line is news out of China that its money supply grew only 12.1% in March compared to the same period the previous year. The People's Bank of China has a target of 13% growth. This is the first time since April 2012 that the target has been missed.

Another way of saying this is that Chinese credit growth is slowing and that has the buyer of both base and precious metals spooked (palladium and platinum have been running on Ukraine issues ). This is the reason that silver is getting whacked with an ugly stick today and why copper is swooning once again.

Traders are going to be watching the GDP numbers for China due out overnight here in the US. This will more than likely be a market mover for copper.

Remember, I am just telling you what the market is trading on; I am not saying it is gospel truth so please, gold perma-bulls, keep the nastygrams at a minimum.

Related to this are reports about Chinese use of gold for collateral in financing business deals. Estimates vary about this but the Financial Times reports that the WGC estimates it may be as high as 1,000 metric tons. That is not an insignificant number!

Today, if that were not bad enough for gold, traders interpreted President Putin's call for talks for a diplomatic solution to the situation in the Ukraine as a lessening of tensions. That is taking some of the risk premium out of gold although traders are reluctant to press it down below support at this time as that situation is anything but resolved. Still, any ratcheting down of tensions is negative to gold.

It must be kept in mind by those who buy gold based on geopolitical events that this is perhaps one of the most riskiest of reasons to buy the metal. I have said it before and will repeat it - price rises in gold due to geopolitical events can and will evaporate just as quickly as they began. Remember that when you bet the farm on more "end of the world as we know it" talk coming from the gold bugs.

Most seasoned traders look to sell such rallies knowing that once the event is fully priced in, there is no longer any fuel for a further rally unless things worsen beyond what the market has currently priced in. It is the old adage of "buy the rumor and sell the fact".

 

From a technical perspective, nothing has changed in relation to gold in one iota. It is still in a broad trading range. Our old friend, the $1280 region continues to define the lower portion of the range while the top of the range has been pressed lower towards $1320. To change the complexion, one or the other level must give way. If the bulls can break through this week's high, they should be able to reach $1340 where another test will occur. On the bottom, a breach of $1280 would portend another drop of $20 towards $1260. Support is layered in $20 increments.

Once again the usual claptrap about GOFO and backwardation in gold has surfaced. Ignore it and listen to what the market is saying. Gold is range trading - no more and no less.

By the way, for those of my European friends who trade the yellow metal, Euro gold has support near the 930 level. Resistance is near 960 followed by 980.

A quick look at silver by request.... notice that while the metal has bounced off its initial level of chart support shown by the upper red rectangle, it has as of yet, been unable to move convincingly above it. A close BELOW $19.50 and the odds favor a move down towards $19 once again.

 

The metal remains below its 50 day moving average, which is bearish. Also, the ADX, while it has been steadily falling indicating the lack of a clearly defined trend is showing some subtle signs that is has stopped falling and may be getting ready to rise. If, and this is a big "if" at the current time, we see it breach $19 and be unable to get back above it, the ADX will be rising indicating the potential for a fresh leg lower in the metal. That would set it on course to fall towards $18.35 - $18.20.

On the grains front - soybeans continue moving higher as that tight old crop carryover situation here in the US has resulted in a bidding war for available supplies, in spite of the fact that the big S. American crop is now workings its way into distribution channels. The market is ensuring a huge acreage number for this season here in the northern hemisphere. Farmers are no doubt going to oblige.

The beans seem to be pulling everything higher including wheat and corn, which is off to a slow planting start this season. I personally have learned to ignore all that talk about "slow plantings" because too many of these newbie traders have never seen a piece of modern farm equipment but the fact is that the market still reacts to this sort of talk so one has to respect it. As mentioned in a previous post, I am hopeful for large and healthy corn and bean crops this season up here as our livestock and poultry producers need a break from this high priced feed.

The Euro failed at 1.39 and has now fallen to 1.38. There is some support on the charts near the 1.37 level. If that fails, we could see the beginning of a trending move lower for the Euro.

One last thing - any of you hog producers out there, please be mindful about what I wrote this weekend about 4th quarter hog prices. Don't let the wildly bullish talk from some who keep talking about how "cheap" 4th quarter hogs are in relation to the summer months beguile you into missing out on locking in some excellent profits. They are cheap for a reason!

Traders - keep in mind that I am speaking about producers who have to manage price risk and can secure good to excellent profits in their expected production with strategically placed hedges. They must take a different approach to markets than we speculators.

There are several option strategies which can be employed. Talk to your broker if you have any questions. One can secure price protection on various percentages of expected marketings while keeping some open as "gambling stocks" in the event of higher prices later this season. Just be careful as a great deal of uncertainty remains in this market and that is causing some wild swings in price. That will continue until the market settles this virus issue one way or the other. If you roll the dice betting on nothing but higher prices, your odds of getting it right are 50-50. I would not want to bet the farm on that especially if I had the opportunity to guarantee myself some good profits and thus sleep well at night.- Dan Norcini, More at http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

 

GATA Posts:

 

 

Wall Street Journal spins a gold-bullish report to bearish

Zero Hedge: Gold futures halted again on latest furious slamdown

Hardly a mention of central banks in FT report on London gold fix

China gold demand seen rising 25% by 2017 as buyers get wealthier

Grant Williams: All markets are rigged, maybe gold most of all

 

The Statistics:

Activity from: 4/14/2014

Gold Warehouse Stocks:

7,917,941.645

-

Silver Warehouse Stocks:

177,766,557.098

+602,987.86

 

Global Gold ETF Holdings

[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]

 

Product name

Total Tonnes

Total Ounces

Total Value

New York Stock Exchange Arca (NYSE Arca) AND Singapore Exchange (SGX) AND Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) AND Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx) AND Mexico Stock Exchange (BMV)

SPDR® Gold Shares

806.221

25,920,817

US$33,636m

London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra)

Gold Bullion Securities

138.13

4,441,056

US$5,790m

London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra) AND NYSE Euronext Amsterdam

ETFS Physical Gold

152.66

4,908,200

US$8,004m

Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)

Gold Bullion Securities

11.16

358,789

US$468m

Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE)

New Gold Debentures

40.38

1,298,223

US$1,721m

Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: SPDR added 1.798 tonnes.

 

COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) Total Tonnes in Trust: 164.41: No change from yesterday’s data.

 

Silver Trust (SLV) Total Tonnes in Trust: 10,228.97: No change from yesterday’s data.

 

The Miners:

 

Newmont’s (NEM) sustainability report, Seabridge’s (SA) optioned project, Vista Gold’s (VGZ) option agreement, First Majestic’s (AG) forward sale contract, SilverCrest’s (SVL.TO) first quarter production results, Endeavour Silver’s (EXK) drill results, and Excellon’s (EXN.TO) first quarter production results were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.

 

WINNERS

1.  Comstock

LODE +3.59% $1.74

2.  Buenaventura

BVN +0.85% $13.11

3.  Alamos Gold

AGI +0.75% $9.37

 

LOSERS

1.  Allied Nevada

ANV -7.04% $3.70

2.  Mines Management

MGN -6.50% $1.15

3.  Pretivm

PVG -5.18% $5.67

Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.

       

Please see Yahoo’s Mining/Metals News Wire for all of today’s mining news.

 

- Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

 

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Additional Resources for today’s Gold Seeker Report can be found:

© Gold Seeker 2014

Note: This article may be reproduced provided the article, in full, is used and mention to Gold-Seeker.com is given.

 

 

Disclosure: The owner, editor, writer and publisher and their associates are not responsible for errors or omissions.  The author of this report is not a registered financial advisor.  Readers should not view this material as offering investment related advice. Gold-Seeker.com has taken precautions to ensure accuracy of information provided. Information collected and presented are from what is perceived as reliable sources, but since the information source(s) are beyond Gold-Seeker.com’s control, no representation or guarantee is made that it is complete or accurate.  The reader accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action.  Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.  Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change.  Nothing contained herein constitutes a representation by the publisher, nor a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities & therefore information, nor opinions expressed, shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, futures or options contract mentioned herein.  Investors are advised to obtain the advice of a qualified financial & investment advisor before entering any financial transaction.

 


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