The Metals:

Gold dropped down to $1293.56 in Asia  before it popped up to $1305.37 at about 8:30AM EST and then chopped back lower in midmorning New York trade, but it then edged back higher in afternoon trade and ended with a gain of 0.015%.  Silver slipped to $19.356 before it rallied back to $19.775 and then also fell back off, but it still ended with a gain of 0.25%.

Euro gold remained at about €943, platinum lost $5.50 to $1433.20, and copper climbed 4 cents to about $3.03.

Gold and silver equities fell over 1% by midmorning before they rallied back towards unchanged by midday, but they then fell back off again into the close and ended near their earlier lows.

The Economy:

“The Federal Reserve said the U.S. economy continued to expand in most regions as businesses benefited from a bounce back from harsh winter weather earlier in the year.”

US mortgage applications increased last week as rates fell -MBA Reuters

Yellen stresses employment, inflation in Fed's coming decision Reuters

Tomorrow brings Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed.

The Markets:

Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/

Oil remained firm on continued concerns about unrest in Ukraine.

The U.S. dollar index waffled near unchanged on mixed economic data.

Treasuries fell as the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P found decent gains on positive earnings reports.

Among the big names making news in the market today were Yahoo, IBM, Bank of America, Citic Pacific, Johnson Controls, and Moelis.

The Commentary:

“Gold is being batted back and forth between two opposing forces at the moment. The negative force continues to be the slowing Chinese economy with traders fearing a slackening of demand from that key consumer. The positive is escalating tensions in the eastern part of Ukraine.

Separatists, or pro-Russian citizens, are continuing to clash with pro-Western citizens with the Ukrainian military getting more involved, although there have been reports of defections over to the Russian side from some Ukrainian military units.

This is supporting gold, as is the weakness in the US Dollar.

Much is being made in certain gold perma-bull websites about rising meat prices as evidence that inflation is here to stay. Such stories are meant to justify claims that gold should be moving significantly higher in anticipation of even further upward price pressures but such stories are inflammatory and not forward looking.

Wholesale meat prices have already peaked out. My view is that we have seen the highs for this season for both beef and pork prices. As we move further into the year, particularly towards the end of the 3rd quarter and on into the 4th, look for prices to fall significantly from current levels. What is currently being witnessed is the catch up in the retail price of red meat as it takes a while for the more recently killed, higher priced product to make its way into the food distribution channel. By the end of this year, and certainly by the beginning of next year, beef and pork prices will have come down considerably from current sticker-shock price levels.

The same goes for soybean prices (barring any serious weather event this growing season). New crop beans are priced a whopping $2.70 below old crop beans as the market is moving on historically tight ending supplies of beans. With record acreage going to beans this growing season, we should also see some relief from these high-priced beans as well, although it will take some time before the market feels comfortable enough to push bean prices lower.

Corn prices are pivoting around the $5.00 level. While they have come off the lows near the $4.00 level, they remain far below the historic peak near $7.75 - $8.00. Wheat is reacting to continued dryness in key growing regions of the Plains but some of its premium is also due to the Ukrainian situation. Traders fear supply disruptions from this key wheat-growing region and have bid prices higher in anticipation of possible shipment disruptions associated with the unrest over there.

The GSCI or Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is trading up near the top of its range as several commodity sectors have been moving higher. If it could clear 680, we might have something in the overall sector indicating some strong upward pressure and a breakout but so far the current board structure in many commodity futures markets is not suggesting SUSTAINED higher prices.

If China continues to slacken further, traders are not going to feel comfortable committing large sums of money into the sector in general.

The Dollar is basically going nowhere as it remains trendless. When it weakens, commodities, especially gold, tend to get a bid. When it strengthens, the opposite is generally true.

Nothing has changed in that regard.

We are back to watching geopolitical events and trading around those for the time being.

By the way, China's GDP number was a tad bit better than the market was looking for but even one of their officials said that the double digit growth that had marked it for some time was over. Gold popped a bit higher when the number came out last evening expressing a sigh of relief.”- Dan Norcini, More at http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

GATA Posts:

Koos Jansen: Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals equal Chinese gold demand, Part 3

The Statistics:

Activity from: 4/15/2014

Global Gold ETF Holdings

[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]

Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: SPDR added 0.599 tonnes.

COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) Total Tonnes in Trust: 164.41: No change from yesterday’s data.

Silver Trust (SLV) Total Tonnes in Trust: 10,228.97: No change from yesterday’s data.

The Miners:

Pretivm’s (PVG) project update, Tanzanian Royalty’s (TRX) project update, Osisko’s (OSK.TO) acquisition agreement with Yamana Gold (AUY) and Agnico Eagle (AEM), and Fresnillo’s (FRES.LN) first quarter production results were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.

WINNERS

LOSERS

Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.

Please see Yahoo’s Mining/Metals News Wire for all of today’s mining news.

- Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

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• http://www.goldseek.com
• http://www.silverseek.com
• http://www.goldreview.com 

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