-- Published: Wednesday, 24 September 2014 | Print | Disqus
Gold edged up to $1225.75 in Asia, but it then fell back to $1215.92 in New York and ended with a loss of 0.47%. Silver slipped to as low as $17.535 and ended with a loss of 0.56%.
Euro gold fell to about €952, platinum lost $14 to $1314, and copper climbed a couple of cents to about $3.06.
Gold and silver equities fell over 1% by early afternoon and remained near that level for the rest of the day.
New Home Sales
Tomorrow brings Initial Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders.
Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/
Oil climbed higher after the Energy Information Administration reported that crude inventories fell 4.3 million barrels, gasoline inventories fell 414,000 barrels, and distillates rose 823,000 barrels.
The U.S. dollar rose as the euro fell after a poor reading of German business confidence.
Treasuries fell as the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P gained as much as 1% in afternoon trade on optimism about the housing market.
Among the big names making news in the market today were Accenture, Pimco, RBS, and Apple.
“King Dollar is back! If I am reading this chart correctly, it looks as if the Dollar is on track for to manage SIX CONSECUTIVE HIGHLY WEEKLY CLOSES. That is the first time that will have happened in more than 4 years!
The greenback has finally managed to push past a key technical chart resistance level near 85 basis the USDX.
While the trading week is not yet ended, if the Dollar can stay above this level noted on the chart to finish it out, I frankly do not see much in the way of further overhead resistance until one nears 86.50 - 87.00. If it does indeed go there, I do not think gold will be able to stay above $1200 as there should be a continuation of the general macro trade jettisoning most commodities should that occur.
The flip side to this is the abysmal showing of the Euro which continues to plummet. Simply put, the Eurozone economic growth has stalled out and its central bank is no where near talking about raising interest rates. That leaves the Dollar with its distinct interest rate advantage, the key factor that has been driving the currency markets for the last 4-5 months.
In looking at its chart, there is a bit of support just below the session low of today. Further down is a zone near 1.2665 - 1.2650. I do not see much in the way of support of any significance if the latter level were to give way. In other words, it is entirely possible that the Euro may see the 1.2000 level. You might recall that during the European sovereign debt crisis, the Euro was plumbing those depths. For TA purposes, that is a double bottom on the intermediate chart. Heaven help that currency if it were to lose that level for any reason!
With the Dollar as strong as it is, one can expect to see gold moving lower, and that is precisely what it is doing.
Here is the recent chart.
Price is attempting to stabilize near current levels; however, the key will be this week's low near the $1208 level. If the bulls can prevent the bears from taking price below that level, they have a chance at stemming the bleeding and moving the market into a sideways pattern, halting the downtrend that has been in place. If not (and especially if the Dollar continues to move higher), $1200 is going to be tested and will probably not hold. We'll just have to wait and see.
Shifting to the grains for a bit - that Corn/Wheat Spread, the one that has been keeping the big specs on the long ( and wrong) side of the corn market, once again failed near the 140 level. That just seems a bridge too far at this point. Corn managed to eke out some gains today as the forecast maps showed a rather large rain event scheduled to hit the corn belt near midweek of next week. That immediately set the bulls yapping about damaged crops, disease, delays in the harvest and the beginning of the Apocalypse. I read where one bullish analyst swore that he saw a Black Horse Rider going through the corn fields of Illinois with a big scale in his hands crying: " a quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius, and do not harm the oil and the wine".
We'll keep an eye on things but for now it looks to me more like a case where some shorts decided to book some profits on the forecasted rains to wait for a bounce higher to sell it again.
Also, there has been some chatter about increased export demand for US wheat, now that prices have fallen to near 5 year lows. I am interested in seeing if such develops for any reason. There are a significant amount of hedge funds and other large specs who are Long corn, and Short wheat, and if this spread reverses violently, we are going to see some interesting price action in the corn in particular.
I think the strong dollar is going to put a cap on any potential wheat rallies but that assumes that other key growing areas around the globe remain free of weather-related threats. Currently there is a large glut of wheat around but the one thing about that market is that other growing regions have to be monitored.
Wheat started the day on a strong note but lost about half its gains going in to the close. Still, it managed to maintain its footing and for a market that has been beaten with an ugly stick like it has, maybe there is something to it. Again, it is too soon to tell.
I am beginning to wonder if the cattle market is ever going to break down. It bends but does not break. Given the strength in the Dollar and the general trend towards selling commodities, and given especially the continued high price of beef which is even more expensive on the global export markets due to the strong dollar, I wonder how much longer the longs are going to keep coming in and supporting this market. Cattle are perhaps one of the few commodity markets that the longs have been able to make some money in and they seem determined to not throw in the towel, yet.
At this point I am still standing by my view that beef prices are going to be coming down by the 4th quarter and certainly by Q1 2015, but the bulls are flexing some very impressive muscles at the moment. Feeders especially are continuing to defy gravity. I frankly do not know how in the world those guys are going to be able to make the least bit of money buying feeders at these prices to sell next year.
That's it for now - the S&P 500 is on a tear once again and is back above 1990 as I type these comments. The same guys who are apparently buying equities must be the ones buying in the cattle markets because the price action is quite similar - the market will bend but then snap right back.
More later...hopefully....”- Dan Norcini, More at http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/
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Activity from: 9/23/2014
Gold Warehouse Stocks:
Silver Warehouse Stocks:
Global Gold ETF Holdings
[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]
New York Stock Exchange Arca (NYSE Arca) AND Singapore Exchange (SGX) AND Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) AND Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx) AND Mexico Stock Exchange (BMV)
SPDR® Gold Shares
London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra)
Gold Bullion Securities
London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra) AND NYSE Euronext Amsterdam
ETFS Physical Gold
Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)
Gold Bullion Securities
Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE)
New Gold Debentures
Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: SPDR subtracted 1.196 tonnes.
COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) Total Tonnes in Trust: 164.72: No change from yesterday’s data.
Silver Trust (SLV) Total Tonnes in Trust: 10,663.72: No change from yesterday’s data.
RVM +3.77% $1.10
TRQ +1.66% $3.68
NSU +1.08% $3.74
XPL -10.58% $1.24
LODE -7.03% $1.19
MUX -4.95% $2.11
Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.
Please see Yahoo’s Mining/Metals News Wire for all of today’s mining news.
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-- Published: Wednesday, 24 September 2014 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com