-- Posted Wednesday, 18 April 2012 | | Disqus

In the last few days I’ve received numerous emails alerting me to the fact that Mr. Dennis Gartman has stated both gold and the junior resource stocks are basically dead. Virtually all the emailers then went on to personally add this must be the best contrarian indicator as they feel his actual track record leaves much to be desired. They also point out that his own publicly-traded fund has underperformed most benchmarks.

First, let me state that unlike the true contrarian indicator and number one clown, Jon “Tokyo Rose” Nadler, Mr. Gartman actually possesses some market forecasting skills. I would pick him in an instant over the clown if one had to manage my own money. And, because I was once Chairman, CEO and President of the “Me, Myself and I Society,” I can fully understand and appreciate Mr. Gartman’s obviously strong ego. (It’s not as hard as one may think to be a legend in one’s own mind, trust me!)

My take on Mr. Gartman is he’s a closet gold bug, but he’ also a brilliant marketer and knows he would lose any serious consideration by the media and mainstream financial arena if they think he wear tin-foil hats or worships a golden cow in his backyard, which would also be very bad for his business. He’s the Vito Spatafore (Sopranos character) of the financial world – he wants to come out of the closet but he’s smart enough to know if he does his business would be whacked.

As I noted yesterday, the junior resource market has numerous factors up against it. I also noted that one possible viewpoint could be that the end has arrived and junior resource players could be the “buggy-whip investors of the 21^st century”. My own prejudiced position was we’re closer now than ever to a major bottom. The fact that Mr. Gartman has thrown in the towel is indeed a bullish contrarian signal—not so much because of his personality and personal track record, but because hard core metals and mining folks like me actually wonder if he could be right this time. If that isn’t a bottom, I don’t know what is.

Quick note on gold and silver – The hate gold mongering continues as an onslaught of bearish forecasts and media articles continue unabated. But somehow gold holds key support around $1,635 and silver actually wants to go considerably higher. As noted previously, it’s best to wait until gold has two consecutive closes above $1,700 before going from defense to offense and worse case scenario is to hold some buying power if we breakdown and head to ultimate support in the $1,550 area. But please don’t hold your breadth waiting for such an occurrence.

-- Posted Wednesday, 18 April 2012 | Digg This Article

Peter Grandich is the Managing Member of Grandich Publications, LLC (www.grandich.com).
The company publishes The Grandich Letter (first published in 1984) which covers the metals and mining industry, follows world markets and economies, and covers the Canadian markets from an American prospective.

Grandich also provides a variety of corporate finance and development services to publicly-held companies.

Peter Grandich is also the Managing Member of Trinity Financial, Sports & Entertainment Management Company, LLC (www.trinityfsem.com), a Registered Investment Advisor in the State of New Jersey. Trinity provides investment advisory services to individuals, small to mid-size businesses, professional athletes and entertainers.

Peter is a long-standing member of The New York Society of Security Analysts and The Society of Quantitative Analysts.

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