-- Posted Friday, 10 June 2011 | | Disqus
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS/FUNDAMENTAL FACTOR
Central bank meetings are over. All eyes will be on incoming US economic numbers before the Federal Reserve meeting. Euro/usd has fallen after the European central bank meeting did not disappoint the markets by confirming an interest rate hike next month. Interest rate differentials will support the euro in the short term. In the long term (9 months to 12 months) we continue to remain bearish on euro/usd as Greece and other nations with debt default will drag the euro lower against the greenback. We expect euro/usd to close the year around 1.2775 levels and maybe even below.
The reason for my bearish view on euro/usd is that a sustained weaker US dollar will lead to an export lead recovery in the USA on one side and a change in European central bank chief this year will result in traders cutting down on long euro positions. Whoever becomes the ECB chief there will bring apprehensions over the policy continuity and whether he will be able to make decisions independently. (Sovereign debt risk will continue to haunt the euro over the next twelve months which is reflected in current prices).
Lack of major negative news in commodities should result in further gains. A bearish trend will emerge if there is inability to break past key resistances.
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD AUGUST
Bullish over $1538 with $1555 and $1569 as price target
Bearish below $1533 with $1523-$1508 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1533-$1538
- A mini double bottom has been formed around $1530 which suggests that gold can rise to $1545-$1560 as long as it trades over $1530.
- There will be a technical breakdown below $1530 all the way to $1515 and $1498
- There will be buyers as long as gold trades over $1530
- Trading call: Buy around $1540 and below stop loss of $1527
COMEX SILVER JULY
Bullish over $3670 with $3825 and $3940 as price target
Bearish below $3620 with $3570 and 3410 price target
Neutral Zone between: $3620 and $3670
- A close over $3740 will be very positive for silver next week which can result in $4045 being tested.
- Sellers will be there on a sustained fall below $3720 OR inability to trade over $3825
- Trading call: Sell below $3740 for $3710 and $3650 OR buy over $3790 for $3833 and $3945
COMEX COPPER JULY
Bullish over $412.10 with $419.40 and $423.60 as price target
Bearish below $407.20 with $402.10 and $394 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $407.20-$412.10
- Copper will break free from the $400-$420 consolidation range soon and form a new range.
- There will be sellers below $412
- Trading call: Sell below $410 for $407 and $403
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)
Bearish below $100.40 with $98.60 and $96.40 as price target.
Bullish over $101.40 with $104.60 and $109.20 as price target
- The key support is at $99.60.
- So far so good for crude oil as it needs to break $104.60 for further gains.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared By Chintan Karnani. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in
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-- Posted Friday, 10 June 2011 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
