-- Posted Wednesday, 29 June 2011 | | Disqus
THE THIRD QUARTER (JULY 2011 TO SEPTEMBER 2011)
We begin a new quarter on Friday. This quarter has been marked by higher food prices and energy prices which has a lagging effect on the global economy. This will result in lower global growth this quarter and losses in base metals and energies. China and India may hike interest rates further in the third quarter. Both Europe and USA economies are not out of the doldrums which could come to the surface in the July to September quarter. We caution against making long term investment in base metals and energies in July as bear markets rallies are huge.
If the Federal Reserve hints of any liquidity increasing measures then all commodities will zoom and the US dollar will sink. On the contrary if does not happen in the third quarter all commodities will fall and also track global economic fundamentals. Investors should use a third quarter fall (if any) to invest for the long term.
The Gulf of Mexico hurricane season is there this quarter and any Katrina and Rita could result in a short term spike in energy prices. Over the past two years there have not been any major category five hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. It remains to be seen if there is one this quarter.
The Greece issue and European sovereign debt default will continue to remain in headlines this quarter also. This will increase intra day volatility.
The US dollar should gain (on an overall basis) this quarter. The lagging effects of a weaker currency in the first two quarters will translate in higher exports. Problems in the eurozone should further support the greenback.
THIS QUARTER TECHNICAL’S
SPOT GOLD: (1) Only a daily close below $1472 (100 day MA) for four consecutive days will result in a short term bear phase to $1413 (200 day MA) and below. (2) Failure to break $1610 will result in a fall to $1413 and $1347. (3) As long as gold trades over $1410 will rise to $1610 and $1760
SPOT SILVER: (1) 200 day MA at $31.87 is the key support and that only a daily close below $31.87 for four consecutive days will result in a short term bear phase to $27.60 and $24.97. (2) Failure to $40.45 this quarter will result in a fall to $27.60 and $23.60
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: (1) For crude oil to be in a bearish zone it needs a daily close below $90 for five trading sessions to $82.20 and $73.40 (2) As long as crude oil trades over $90 it will target $109 and $121.
COMEX COPPER: (1) $360 is the key medium term support and as long as copper trades over $360 it will rise to $437 and $477 (2) Only a daily close below $360 for four consecutive days will result in a fall to $319 and $287.
MCX GOLD: (A) Rs 21500 is the key support and as long as gold trades over Rs.21500 it will rise to Rs.22900-23500. A bearish trend will emerge if gold has a daily close below Rs.21500 for five consecutive days to Rs.20760 and Rs.19700 (B) Failure to break and trade over 23169 this quarter will result in a fall to Rs.21500 and Rs.20760.
MCX SILVER: (A) Rs.48765 is the key support and as long as silver trades over Rs.48765 it will rise to Rs.59300 and 71100. Bearish trend will emerge if silver has a daily close below Rs.48765 for five consecutive days to Rs.45500 and Rs.39700 (B) Failure to break and trade over Rs.61000 this quarter will result in a fall to Rs.43100 and Rs.38760.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared By Chintan Karnani. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in
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PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
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-- Posted Wednesday, 29 June 2011 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
