-- Posted Friday, 2 September 2011 | | Disqus
- US August Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased 75,000, slowing from July's 117,000 rise. Data to released at 6:00 pm IST.
- U.S. manufacturing unexpectedly grew in August and fewer Americans filed new claims for jobless aid last week despite a slump in confidence that threatened to push the economy back into recession.
- New York metal market will be closed on Sept. 5 in observance of the U.S. Labour Day holiday, but the CME Globex electronic platform will be open on Monday for shortened hours.
- Any expansion of US economy will be bearish for gold and bullion and bullish for base metals
Gold and silver will break from the recent consolidation phase and form a new range by next week. However irrespective of the US August non farm payroll numbers there will be buyers on sharp dips for gold and silver as traders will prefer to go long on the mini weekend.
If the US jobs market shows sign of growth then it will dampen expectations of QE3 and there can be a selloff of $100-$150 in spot gold and $2.00 to $3.00 spot silver which will be nothing but buying opportunities.
COMEX | LAST | MA 9 | MA 21 | MA 50 | MACD | RSI |
GOLD | $1,830.10 | $1,810.16 | $1,789.56 | $1,664.67 | 1.0242 | 1.5195 |
SILVER | $4,172.50 | $4,111.67 | $4,040.74 | $3,893.29 | 1.0155 | 3.4643 |
COPPER | $414.00 | $409.48 | $403.69 | $422.04 | 0.9948 | 0.3437 |
CRUDE | $88.95 | $87.13 | $85.55 | $91.51 | 0.9900 | 0.0739 |
GAS | $4.05 | $3.96 | $3.97 | $4.17 | 0.9879 | 0.0034 |
PLATINUM | $1,850.90 | $1,843.76 | $1,820.86 | $1,783.33 | 1.0096 | 1.5368 |
PALLADIUM | $788.55 | $765.31 | $754.23 | $772.57 | 0.9993 | 0.6547 |
HEATING OIL | $3.06 | $3.02 | $2.95 | $3.00 | 1.0051 | 0.0025 |
I still do not understand why the euro is rising as the fundamentals of the eurozone economy do not deserve a stronger euro. In my view the fair value of euro/usd is around 1.30 but in comparison to the US economy with eurozone and dwindling purchasing power of the US dollar investors think that it’s better to invest in the euro than the greenback. The fact is neither of the currencies deserves to gain. Keep a close watch on the US dollar – Japanese yen and that any yen gains will be bearish for gold and silver in September.
Key closing prices for continuation of bullish trend next week
Spot gold: $1790
Spot silver: $40.64
Comex gold December: $1794
Comex silver December: $4075
Comex copper December: $411
Nymex crude oil: $87
The rise is crude oil prices could be a due to a mini weekend and that it can fall next week once the holidays are over.
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD DECEMBER
Bullish over $1811 with $1852 and $1890 as price target
Bearish below $1803 with $1760-$1717 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1803-$1811
Break point: $1803 and $1852
- Gold will break free from the $1790-$1840 range and form a new range. Gold needs to trade over $1852 in US session today to target $1910-$1990 zone and failure to do so will result in a fall to $1760 and $1720
- There will be buyers on dips as long as gold trades over $1790-$1800 zone
- Trading call: Buy around $1770 stop loss below $1740 OR buy over $1840 for $1860-$1890
- Limit order: Buy gold around $1710 stop loss below $1680 for Tuesday
MCX GOLD OCTOBER
(all prices below are in Indian Rupees)
Bullish over 27190 with 27650 and 28360 as price target
Bearish below 27050 with 26850-26575-26174 as price target
Neutral Zone: 27050-27190
BREAK POINT: 26899-27224
- Gold needs to trade over 27200 for the whole day else it will fall to 26800 and 26100. However failure to break 27500 today will result in a fall to 26400 and 25700.
- There will be seller if gold trades below 27150 in US session
- Momentum call: Sell below 27200 for 26950-26400 OR buy over 27400 for 27650-28100
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared By Chintan Karnani. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in
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-- Posted Friday, 2 September 2011 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
