-- Posted Tuesday, 27 September 2011 | | Disqus
Executive summary
- Bullion and base metals seem to have bottomed out
- The next ten days very crucial for gold and silver
- Physical demand of gold and silver in India will zoom from tomorrow for a month with the advent of “Navratras” till Diwali”
- Silver needs to trade over $31.60 to target $37.40 once again
- Gold needs to trade over $1630 to be bullish zone
- Copper and crude oil will be dictated by equities.
- We expect emerging markets like India and China to cut interest rates from December 2011 as the current fall in commodities is anti inflation and will spur greater consumption and higher consumption
It remains to be seen how long the fall continues in commodities. Technically the correction in gold, silver, copper and crude oil is over and that they should rise further. For the short term the next ten days are very crucial for gold and silver. If they continue to remain in a bearish direction after 10th October then they may not recover for a period of three months to six months and start another big bull run after six months. However the pace of rise of gold and silver will be normal. The past twelve months has seen an abnormal rise in gold and silver. I am never concerned over the rise of gold and silver as they have a lot to rise over the coming months and years. Gold and silver are not in a bubble zone. Use sharp dips to invest for the long term.
Technically gold and silver are in a medium term bearish zone after last weeks and Mondays fall. There is no doubt of it. Successive highs are getting lower which suggest that a medium term bear trend is in place. However it’s better not to read too much into the technical aspects and focus more fundamentals. Long term fundamentals are bullish and that one should use next few months dip to invest in gold and silver.
The long term effects of the current fall in commodities will be felt from December onwards by way of lower inflation, interest rate cuts in emerging markets like India, China and the rest. This will be very positive for base metals in the long term. Base metals are also a great long term investment at current prices. Valuations in equity markets are also looking cheap at current prices.
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX COPPER DECEMBER
Bearish below $321 with $308-$301 and $292 as price target
Bullish over $339 with $357 and $387 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $321-$339
Break point: $321 and $339
- 200 week moving average at $321 is the key support and copper can rise to $352-$387 as long as it trades over $321. There will be a technical break down below $321 to $308 and $292
- Trading call: Buy over $339 for $357-$387 or buy around $292 stop loss below $378
MCX COPPER NOVEMBER
Bullish over 364 with 375 and 391 as price target
Bearish below 361 with 355-349 and 339 as price target
Neutral Zone: 361-364
BREAK POINT: 368.90
- Copper can rise to 387 once again as long as it trades over 348. There will be a long term technical break down if copper trades below 348 in US session on any day
- Momentum call: Buy over 368 for 374-384-387 or sell below 359 for 355-351-337
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.Prepared By Chintan Karnani. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in
Happy profitable Trading
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
Customer care: 9811139549/9311139549
You can also mail your queries at chintan@insigniaindia.com
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
MCX COPPER: RS.4000-RS.5000 PER LOT
-- Posted Tuesday, 27 September 2011 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
