-- Posted Tuesday, 29 November 2011 | | Disqus
COMEX DAILY REPORT
Executive Summary
· US equity markets rise overnight will support base metals and energies at lower prices
· Crude oil needs to trade over $95 to be in bullish zone
· Traders and investors are now expected to take positions for the December US farm payrolls
· Central bank buying should support gold in December.
It remains to be seen how long global equity markets are able to sustain the rally. Interest rate cuts in Asia and other emerging nations have started getting factored in by the markets. Interest rate cuts are always bullish for equity markets and commodities. In 2011 investors have preferred to invest more in gold than in equities. This trend was more in Asia and other emerging markets. This trend will continue into the first quarter of 2012 and later when the global economy starts to stabilize and forms a bottom (which in my view has formed a bottom now) investors will switch from gold into equities. ETF investment in gold will rise in the first quarter of 2012 and should fall in the subsequent quarter of 2012. However at lower prices central banks and jewelry demand in India and the rest of the world will lap up all the surplus gold and prevent gold prices from falling. Indian gold demand will be huge and rise for the whole of 2012 as long as prices trade over Rs.25000/- per ten grams. I do not foresee Indian gold prices falling below Rs.25000 per ten grams and that anything below Rs.25000/- per ten grams would be a bonus and a call to increase asset allocation to gold.
My elder brother tells me that I am dumb ass when I tell him that in 2012 gold prices below Rs.25000 per ten grams will be a bonus to invest. His reasoning is that in June 2011 gold prices were at Rs.22000 per ten grams. (which at the moment is a distant dream as to whether gold price will every near Rs.22000 (per ten grams) over the coming years.) His is of the view that gold prices will crash in 2012 and fall between Rs.20000-Rs.22000 per grams. He can be right but for that the Indian rupee should fall to Rs.45.00 and below against the US dollar and gold prices have to fall below $1500. For gold prices to be in a bear trend in 2012 it has to fall below the previous years low (2011 low is $1307 and Rs.20000 per ten grams) and the bull trend is intact as long as gold prices trade over the previous year’s low. Investors will switch away from gold investing if and only if they get continuous negative returns for a sustained period of time. There may be one or two quarters of negative returns in gold in 2012 but these will be a part and parcel of a long term bull rally. I just forgot to mention about my darling silver. I am an out and out a core silver bull. My preference over investing in silver over gold will remain in 2012 and following years. Just remember that Indian silver prices will not fall below Rs.25000 (per kilogram) with every possibility of Rs.125,000 per kilogram in the next three years to five years. Risk to return ratio favors the long term silver investors. Indian gold prices should rise between Rs.47000 to Rs.49000 per ten grams in the next three years to five years. But the pace of rise of gold and silver will be very slow. Bullion investors be prepared for greater patience in 2012.
TODAY
Technically gold and silver are in a bullish zone but they need to break $1730 and $33.00 for further gains. Lack of major negative news from Europe will result in further gains in bullion, base metals and energies.
We continue with our buy on dips strategy today and this week. Equity markets will be the key.
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW (no change from yesterdays view)
GOLD FEBRUARY 2012 TECHNICAL LEVELS |
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$1,654.00 | $1,673.00 | $1,685.00 | $1,704.55 | $1,718.10 | $1,728.11 | $1,751.00 | $1,772.00 |
SILVER MARCH 2012 TECHNICAL LEVELS |
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$2,960.00 | $3,085.00 | $3,110.00 | $3,160.00 | $3,216.00 | $3,272.00 | $3,353.00 | $3,464.00 |
COPPER MARCH 2012 TECHNICAL LEVELS |
` | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$316.70 | $322.10 | $330.60 | $334.80 | $337.20 | $340.90 | $347.50 | $354.30 |
CRUDE OIL (1st Contract) |
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$93.70 | $94.30 | $95.40 | $96.90 | $97.90 | $100.50 | $102.20 | $104.80 |
COMEX GOLD FEBRUARY 2012
Bullish over $1701 with $1725 -$1754-$1775 as price target
Bearish below $1685 with $1663-$1649 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1685-$1701
Break point: $1707
- Gold targets $1726 and $1775 as long as it trades over $1690
- There will be buyers on dips as long as gold trades over $1690
- Trading call: Buy over $1711 for $1726-$1741 or buy around $1675 stop loss below $1630
COMEX SILVER MARCH 2012
Bullish over $3160 with $3310-$3453 as price target
Bearish below $3080 with $2980-$2760 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $3080-$3160
Break point: $3205
- Silver can rise to $3350-3550 as long as it trades over $3100
- There will be buyers on dips as long as silver trades over $3080-$3100
- Trading call: Buy around $3170 stop loss below $3040 for Friday
- Jobbers buy silver over $3205 for $3255-$3355 or sell below $3160 for $3130-$3080
COMEX COPPER MARCH 2012
Bullish over $334 with $347 -$354 as price target
Bearish below $329 with $323-$316 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $329-$334
Break point: $337
- Copper seems to have bottomed out and should rise to $354-$367 this week as long as it trades over $320
- There will be sellers below $334 only
- Trading call: Buy over $337-$339 for $343-$354 or buy around $323 stop loss below $313 for $364 (till next week)
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)
Bullish over $96.20 with $99.80 - $103.60 as price target
Bearish below $95.20 with $92.20 and $90.50 as price target
Break point: $96.20
- Crude oil has managed to trade over the 200 day MA of $95.20 and can now rise to $102.20-$104 as long as it trades over $95.20
- There will be buyers on dips as long as crude oil trades below $94
- Trading call: Buy around $94.40 stop loss below $92.20 or buy over $98.10 for $99.10-$101.80
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared By Chintan Karnani. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in
Happy profitable Trading
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
Customer care: 9811139549/9311139549
You can also mail your queries at chintan@insigniaindia.com
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
-- Posted Tuesday, 29 November 2011 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
