-- Posted Monday, 16 April 2012 | | Disqus
Executive Summary
· Inverted head and should formation in the technical charts suggesting a short term bear trend.
· Gold has a technical congestion between $1649-$1658 and a fall below this zone will result in $1570 in short term
· Silver have another wave of short term selling only below $3057
· BSE Sensex and Nifty are also bearish
An inverted head and shoulder formation in the charts suggest that gold and silver are in a bearish zone. Only a daily close over $1686 for gold and $3256 for silver will nullify the bearish divergence else any rise should be used as an opportunity to sell. Copper and crude oil will fall further if global stock markets also fall further. Copper can fall to $349 and $332 on a fall below $361 while crude oil needs to trade over $103 else a fall to $100 and $99. Physical demand for gold and silver is not that great in India. But I expect higher demand if prices fall this week.
Hedge funds and other money managers slashed their exposure to U.S. commodities by around $9 billion this week, government data showed on Friday, in the biggest such cut in four months that came on worries over China's slowing economy and fading prospects for new U.S. economic stimulus. Base metals should bottom out this quarter and rise in the next quarter. One should use this quarters fall (if any) in base metals as an opportunity to go long for the this quarter and fourth quarter.
China took a milestone step in turning the yuan into a global currency on Saturday by doubling the size of its trading band against the dollar, pushing through a crucial reform that further liberalizes its nascent financial markets. Great move but already priced in by the markets.
TODAY
Technically gold, silver, copper and crude oil are bearish. The rise will be there if and only if the US dollar weakens.
COMEX BUY ABOVE/SELL BELOW CALLS – ONLY FOR THOSE TRADERS WHO TRADE ON TRADING SCREENS
(To be done on which ever trading call is executed first)
GOLD JUNE 2012: Buy over $1661 for $1666-$1672-$1683 or sell below $1649 for $1643-$1639 and $1625
SILVER MAY 2012: Buy over $3180 for $3210-$3256-$3296 or sell below $3125 for $3115-$3098-$3045
COPPER MAY 2012: Buy over $361 for $364.50-$371 or sell below $357 for $353-$348
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: Sell below $102.20 for $101.60-$100.80
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
GOLD JUNE 2012 TECHNICAL LEVELS |
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$1,622.90 | $1,630.80 | $1,635.80 | $1,648.60 | $1,656.90 | $1,662.00 | $1,669.00 | $1,684.60 |
SILVER MAY 2012 TECHNICAL LEVELS |
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$3,048.00 | $3,065.00 | $3,082.00 | $3,110.00 | $3,151.00 | $3,184.50 | $3,213.00 | $3,296.00 |
COPPER MAY 2012 TECHNICAL LEVELS |
` | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$343.30 | $347.90 | $350.50 | $353.00 | $361.10 | $365.00 | $367.90 | $372.40 |
CRUDE OIL (1st Contract) |
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$99.16 | $100.40 | $101.00 | $101.90 | $103.00 | $103.60 | $104.30 | $105.20 |
COMEX GOLD JUNE 2012 – current price $1652.20
Trading Strategy: Bearish watch $1652
Bullish over $1656 with $1669 and $1684 price target
Bearish below $1649 with $1635.80 and $1602 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1649-$1656
Break point: $1649
- Gold has a technical congestion between $1649-$1658 and a fall below this zone will result in $1570 in short term
- There will be sellers only below $1649
- Trading call: Sell around $1670 stop loss over $1686 for $1631-$1602
COMEX SILVER MAY 2012 – current price $3142
Trading Strategy: Bearish watch $3090
Bullish over $3186 with $3236-$3296 as price target
Bearish below $3156 with $3110-$3090 and $3048 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $3156-$3186
Break point: $3155 and $3077
- Silver can fall to $3077 and $2911 as long as it trades below $3211
- There will be sellers below $3112
- Trading call: Sell around $3256 stop loss over $3286 for $3110 and $2911
COMEX COPPER MAY 2012 – current price $358.85
Trading Strategy: Bearish watch $361
Bullish over $364 with $379 -$384 as price target
Bearish below $359 with $349.80-$333 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $359-$364
Break point: $359.90
- I was wrong on the bullish view and copper now needs to trade over $359 else it will fall to $345 and $327
- There will be sellers only below $359
- Trading call: Buy around $349 stop loss below $343 for $369-$374
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT) - current price $102.20
Neutral to bearish watch $102.20
Bullish over $103 with $105.20 and $107.70 as price target
Bearish below $102.20 with $100.80 and $99.40 as price target
Break point: $102.20
- Crude oil needs to trade over $103 else it will fall to $100.80 and $97.60
- There will be sellers as long as crude oil does not break $105
- Trading call: Sell around $103.50 stop loss over $105.20 for $100.50-$98.80
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
Happy profitable trading
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Posted Monday, 16 April 2012 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
