-- Posted Tuesday, 2 October 2012 | | Disqus
Executive Summary
· Gold needs to break and trade over $1796 for $1830+. There will be a technical break down in case gold fails to break $1796 this week.
General market conditions
The Federal Reserve chairman dismissed accusations that September monetary easing will increase inflation and justified the same. This resulted in gold and silver falling first and then rising. The rise in gold and silver was further aided by a weaker US dollar. The slow and steady rise in gold and silver (after QE3) has reduced short term hot money flows and probably the opportunists are just waiting on the sidelines. Gold and silver are now being supported by long term investors. In fact I also believe that the chances of gold price rising to $2500/ Rs.43000 (per ten grams) are far higher than $1300/Rs.25000 (per ten grams) in the next three to four years. The risk to return ration is in favor of the long term buyers. Silver prices in the next three to four years should rise to $55.00/Rs107000 (per kilogram) is far higher than $21.00/Rs.37000 (per kilogram). But long term silver investors need to keep the nerves as wild fluctuations test them.
The global political situation is changing. India and the USA have more confidence in each other than a decade back. Russia and Pakistan could be new friends and there is a big chance that Pakistan could access Russian weapons for use against India. Most global leaders know that the Middle East and African regions could be interfered easily for their own gains. War between Asian nations (ex middle east) or in South America will have economic impact on USA, Europe, Japan and Australia. The allowing of foreign direct invest in multi brand retail in India benefits USA based companies the most. China is using its economic clout as well financial clout to make friends every where. China and the USA are interdependent economically. In short there is a look out for a new super power which can near USA like status. This trend will result in gold and other safe havens continuously rising at a slower pace.
TODAY
Technically all commodities are bullish. The US dollar will be the key.
COMEX GOLD: Buy if only if gold trades over $1796 for $1814-$1836
COMEX SILVER: Sell only if silver trades below $3477
COMEX COPPER: Buy on sharp dips with a stop loss below $367
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: Buy on dips with a stop loss below $89.50
GOLD DECEMBER 2012 TECHNICAL LEVELS |
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$1,754.00 | $1,761.80 | $1,764.00 | $1,777.00 | $1,787.00 | $177.00 | $1,793.00 | $1,805.50 |
SILVER DECEMBER 2012 TECHNICAL LEVELS |
SUPPORT | . |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$3,356.05 | $3,388.50 | $3,420.95 | $3,462.00 | $3,522.00 | $3,552.00 | $3,575.00 | $3,615.00 |
COPPER DECEMBER 2012 TECHNICAL LEVELS |
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$363.45 | $366.12 | $368.29 | $374.27 | $379.10 | $383.95 | $385.48 | $391.46 |
CRUDE OIL (1st Contract) |
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$86.84 | $88.88 | $89.72 | $91.76 | $93.42 | $95.07 | $95.50 | $97.11 |
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2012 – current price $1781.70
Bullish over $1769 with $1796 and $1814 price target
Bearish below $1763.30 with $1752 and $1736.20 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1763.30-1769
Break point: $1764.40-$1799.50
- Gold needs to break $1796 for $1825. As long as gold does not break $1796 it will trade in $1760-$1796 range.
- There will be sellers only below $1764.40
COMEX SILVER DECEMBER 2012 – current price $3487.00
Bullish over $3475 with $3530-$3590 as price target
Bearish below $3431 with $3388- $3320 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $3431-$3475
Break point: $3475
- Silver can rise to $3552 and $3595 as long as it trades over $3431
- Another wave of selling will be there below $3431
COMEX COPPER DECEMBER 2012 – current price $378.10
Bullish over $373.80 with $382.50 -$396.40 as price target
Bearish below $367.30 with $363.50-$359.80 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $367.30-$373.80
Break point: $379.0
- Copper needs to break $387 for $396-$412. As long as copper does not break $387 it will trade in $373-$387 range
- There will be sellers only if copper trades below $373.50
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT) - current price $92.48
Bullish over $91.20 with $93.20 and $95.70 as price target
Bearish below $89.10 with $87.90 and $85.60 as price target
Break point: $91200
- Crude oil needs to break $94.40 this week else it wall to $89.50 and $87.50
- There will be a technical break down below $90.50 to $85.90 and below
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
Trade without emotions & Have a great weekend.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Posted Tuesday, 2 October 2012 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
