-- Posted Wednesday, 10 October 2012 | | Disqus
General market conditions
US dollar gains resulted in gold and silver falling while crude oil rose. This is just a consolidation phase for gold and silver. Technically they are in a neutral zone. At lower prices there are short term buyers as well as long term investors in gold and silver. Short term traders are buying on hopes that gold and silver will break $2000 and $42.00 before the close of the year. Last week’s US non-farm payrolls gave gold and silver bears some glimmer of hope. But yesterday’s IMF bitter pill on the global economy has reinforced gold and silver bulls. Slower global growth implies an even more rise in availability of free money and lack of faith in currency based investments.
My concern is that if the pace of rise of gold and silver falls then some of the current short term hot money which is there will move away to some alternative investment. Investors will get wary and move away their short term money.
US indebtedness falls
US debt has shrunk to a six-year low relative to the size of the economy as homeowners, cities and companies cut borrowing, undermining rating companies’ downgrading of the nation’s credit rating. Total indebtedness including that of federal and state governments and consumers has fallen to 3.29 times gross domestic product, the least since 2006, from a peak of 3.59 four years ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Private- sector borrowing is down by $4 trillion to $40.2 trillion.
Our View: Consumer debt in the US will fall further as they move away from credit card debts and increase the use of cash and debit cards to pay their debts. The US consumer has suffered the ill effects of excess credit card spending. They will increase their savings rate further. An increase in the savings rate in the USA implies short term pains for its economy and long term gains for its economy.
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX SILVER DECEMBER 2012 – current price $3389.00
Bullish over $3444 with $3494-$3561 as price target
Bearish below $3415 with $3363- $3313 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $3415-$344
Break point: $3415
- Silver is consolidating in $3341-$3550 wider range. This range will be broken soon and a new range will be formed.
- Another wave of selling will be there only below $3341 only.
MCX Natural gas October 2012 (all prices in Indian rupees below)
Natural gas needs to break 196.15 in the next two weeks for 217.90. If Natural gas does not break 196.15 in the next two weeks then it will fall to 165.40 and 145.30. In the next two years we expect MCX natural gas prices to rise to 400. In 2012 MCX natural gas has formed a long term bottom.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Posted Wednesday, 10 October 2012 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
