-- Posted Friday, 12 October 2012 | | Disqus
General market conditions
Applications for jobless benefits dropped 30,000 to 339,000 in the week ended Oct. 6, the fewest since February 2008. The U.S. trade deficit widened in August as exports dropped, a report from the Commerce Department also showed today. The gap grew 4.1 percent to $44.2 billion from $42.5 billion in July.
The US economy is getting the benefits of monetary easing. There are still doubts whether gains in the US economy will continue or not.
India: Individual wealth grows in India but stays skewed
Wealth per capita has registered 8% average annual growth since 2000 after exchange rate movements were adjusted, according to a latest study on wealth of countries. India has 1.58 lakh millionaires (in dollar worth) and 23 lakh persons have net worth in excess of $100,000. There are 1,500 (ultra high net-worth individuals) with wealth of over $50 million and 700 with more than $100 million, according to Credit Suisse's third annual global wealth report.
Wealth per adult rose from $2,000 in 2000 to $5,300 in 2011 in India and total wealth now stands at $3.2 trillion. "Given the 29% rise in the adult population, aggregate wealth more than tripled during the same period," Credit Suisse said.
The personal wealth in India , like most countries in the developing world, is heavily skewed towards property and other real assets, which make up 84% of estimated household assets.
While wealth has been rising strongly in India, and the ranks of the middle class and the wealthy have been swelling, not everyone has shared in this growth and there is still a great deal of poverty, the Credit Suisse study found. This is reflected in the fact that most persons in the country (95%) have wealth below $10,000.
Our View: (A) Increase in wealth and growing number of millionaires implies that Indian property prices will rise over the coming years. Even if there is recession lower side price risk to real estate prices will be limited (B) Increase in wealthier people also tells us the dwindling purchasing power of money. Indian inflation will rise over the coming years and the chances of a sustained stability in Indian inflation are very low. The rich – poverty gap will only widen. (C) India will see a decrease in healthier people with an increase in wealthier people. Cities have been made dumps for all kinds of disease due to lack of cleanliness. The ever increasing in suicide rates in Indian cities tells us the state of health of people living in Indian cities. The state healthcare facilities are very less and if you ever go there the chances are that you will find strikes by some department or the other. Private healthcare facilities are still very expensive in India (in comparison to the affordability due to income). Private hospitals are run more like a looting corporation than a life saving organization. (D) Gold demand of all forms will only rise over the coming years irrespective of prices. Diamond demand in India will rise more than gold demand.
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT) - current price $92.19
Bullish over $90.50 with $93.10 and $94.40 as price target
Bearish below $88.85 with $86.46 and $85.19 as price target
Break point: $92.20
- Crude oil needs to break and trade over $94.40 today. Failure to do so will result in a fall back to $89.50-$87.50
- There will be sellers only below $90.50
NYMEX CRUDE OIL – (all prices in Indian rupee below)
Crude oil needs to break 5005-5045 for 5150-5250. On the lower side 4790 is the key support and there will be another wave of selling below 4790 to 4699-4615.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Posted Friday, 12 October 2012 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
