-- Posted Thursday, 25 October 2012 | | Disqus
General market conditions
Sales of new single-family homes in the U.S. rose in September to the highest rate in more than two years. This confirms the improving picture in the housing market. The US economy is in better shape in September and if the US economy improves in November and December gold and other safe havens demand will be a in a bear zone. It is too early to jump to conclusions on the US economy and a gold bearish trend. Europe, the Middle East and Asia will now be the focus. Only if Mitt Romney wins the US presidential race then analysts will make changes in their views. Silver and base metals should overall rise as global economic gloom subsides. The current bearish trend in silver and base metals will vanish quickly.
Chinese manufacturing showed signs of improvement while German manufacturing was weak. If the Chinese economy improves then base metals will start a big fundamental rally.
The Federal Reserve meeting
The Federal Reserve stuck to its plan to keep stimulating U.S. growth until the job market improves even as it acknowledged some parts of the economy were looking a bit better. It repeated its vow to keep rates near zero until mid-2015 and its pledge to keep supporting growth while the recovery strengthens. The Fed's policy-setting panel made no change in its plan to purchase $40 billion in mortgage-backed debt per month to push interest rates lower and spur a stronger recovery. "The committee remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions," the Fed said.
Our View: The Federal Reserve will continue the current policy till March 2013. If the US economy shows signs of improvement till February and March 2013 then only they reduce the $40 billion a month purchase of mortgage-backed debt. I do not see the Federal Reserve ending the $40 billion a month purchase of mortgage-backed debt before June 2013. If Mitt Romney wins the US presidential elections then there should be a change in the Federal Reserve outlook.
Next key event risk:
2nd November: US October non farm payrolls
6th November: Voting for US presidential elections.
GOLD DECEMBER 2012 TECHNICAL LEVELS |
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$1,684.50 | $1,693.50 | $1,699.50 | $1,704.20 | $1,714.68 | $1,725.32 | $1,731.09 | $1,735.20 |
SILVER DECEMBER 2012 TECHNICAL LEVELS |
SUPPORT | . |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$3,130.00 | $3,146.00 | $3,186.00 | $3,188.00 | $3,208.00 | $3,256.89 | $3,272.59 | $3,295.80 |
COPPER DECEMBER 2012 TECHNICAL LEVELS |
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$347.30 | $350.20 | $353.80 | $356.40 | $359.70 | $362.30 | $366.20 | $370.20 |
CRUDE OIL (1st Contract) |
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$78.88 | $81.16 | $83.20 | $84.85 | $86.51 | $88.55 | $89.70 | $91.70 |
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2012 – current price $1709.00
The 200 hundred day moving average is at $1664 and as long as gold trades over $1664 downside risk will be limited in the short term. Gold could consolidate in $1650-$1800 range for the next few weeks.
MCX GOLD DECEMBER 2012 – prices in Indian rupees below
Overall bearish below 31760 and as long as gold does not break 31760 the chances of 30000 are higher in the next few weeks.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Posted Thursday, 25 October 2012 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
