-- Posted Monday, 29 October 2012 | | Disqus
General market conditions
We have the US October non farm payrolls this week. Traders will prefer not to go short before this number which can result in gains for gold and silver this week. Technically gold and silver are in a neutral zone to bearish zone. A positive spate of good economics from the USA and the UK should prevent a further slide in base metals and energies. Intra day volatility will rise over the next two weeks.
Hurricane Sandy will affect trading volumes marginally. Floor trading could be closed.
In the other news
The U.S. Mint sold 48,500 ounces of American Eagle gold coins so far this month, 29 percent fewer than throughout September. This year’s sales of 530,000 ounces are down 41 percent from the same period in 2011.
India: Asset Under management (AUM) in gold
According to the NSE, the year on year AUM growth of ETFs is up by 37%, Rs 11,198 crore as on September 2012 as against Rs 8,173 crore at the same time last year.
Our View: AUM in gold will rise in India over the coming week. The investor sentiment towards gold is to use corrections to invest in gold. The middle class and lower class have shown more inclination to invest in gold (whether ETF or physical form) than the upper class. This is as per a survey which we conducted last month covering different cities in India and all classes of people. Wherever I go I am asked when will prices fall or is it a right time to invest in gold. However the next six months is very crucial for gold AUM’s. In case Indian gold prices does not break past Rs.33000 per ten grams by April 2013 then gold AUM’s will see an outflow.
Indian gold imports
Gold imports by India, last year’s biggest buyer, slid to as low as 170 tons in the third quarter from 205 tons a year earlier.
Over the past one year import duty on gold has been increased twice. Gold smuggling into India has increased in a big way. Nonresidents, Indians working overseas are bringing a lot of gold into India (within the legal limits to bring gold into India). Actual Indian gold imports will never be known. I believe that gold imports are nearly double the official gold import figures.
TODAY
Trade in the technical and ignore the rest
TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX COPPER DECEMBER 2012 – current price $355.70
Bullish over $358.10 with $361.70 -$373.80 as price target
Bearish below $348.50 with $342.20-$339.30 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $348.50-$358.10
Break point: $358.70
- Copper needs to break and trade over $358 to target $366-$373
MCX COPPER NOVEMBER 2012 – all prices in Indian rupee below
414 is the key short term support and copper can rise to 441-456 as long as it trades over 414. A daily close below 414 for three consecutive days will result in a short term bearish trend. As long as copper trades over 414, we prefer to use a buy on dips strategy.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Posted Monday, 29 October 2012 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
