-- Posted Monday, 3 December 2012 | | Disqus
General market conditions
The fall in gold and silver last week was due to profit taking and a technical break down after repeated failed attempts to break past $1756 for gold and $3580 for silver. It’s not all over for gold and silver. Over the past two years gold has recovered very quickly after $20-$30 falls and the bear trend has not lasted for more than a week.
One thing which I have observed over the past few years is that gold prices have fallen whenever the Indian media, particularly TV channels, have gone gaga over a gold price rise. The gold price fall all may be temporary (after hyper bullish comments on gold by Indian TV channels) but they have fallen. (Please note that that I have no intention to criticize the Indian TV channels but I am just informing about reality). When the gold price falls all the stop losses get triggered and the short term trader gets his profits wiped out and the retail traders say curse the markets or their luck. For the traders in MCX and other commodity exchanges who have incurred losses all I can say that it is your money, trading profits are yours and losses are also yours. The media, consultants (in including us), etc. are not your partner in losses or profits. One needs to trade carefully and ensure that over a period of time one gets decent returns. It is your hard earned. Getting a trading loss is very easy but getting back into profit after a trading loss is not easy.
Traders will prefer to go long in gold and silver before the US November non farm payrolls on Friday. A significantly bad number can restart the big gold bull run. We need to be careful while trading as intraday volatility will rise. Jewelry demand will rise in India due to the price fall. Indian people will use the current fall and further fall (if any) in gold prices to invest in gold. The Hindu marriage season has begun which will also add to gold demand.
India gold imports
Gold imports in value terms declined by 30.3 per cent in the April-September period of this year to $20.2 billion. During the April-September period of 2011, Gold imports had increased by 66 per cent to $29 billion
November sales of U.S. American Eagle gold coins are set to be the strongest in 14 years. Investors have so far this month bought 131,000 ounces of American Eagles produced by the U.S. Mint, more than triple last year's November sales and marked the strongest November since 1998, data from the Mint's website shows. Gold’s bull run is here to stay.
2013 MCX GOLD FORECAST
In 2013 intraday volatility will be very high. The direction of the Indian rupee against the US dollar will be key just like in 2012. We expect wide trading range of Rs.28000-Rs.38000 for 2013. The chances of Rs.38000 are higher as long as gold trades Rs.28000. The reserve bank of India and the UPA government is looking for ways and means to curb the so called menace (for the Indian government) of gold imports in India. One needs to look for further tax increases in gold imports in 2013. Yes we do expect further increase in taxes in gold imports in 2013. Any new instruments of investment to lure away gold investors to something else will be useless and unsuccessful as most of the gold investors are traditional type investors.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
Trade without emotions
"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
Customer care: 9311139549
You can also mail your queries at insigniacommodity@gmail.com
Chat Id: mcxsuretips@gmail.com (gtalk), insigniaconsultants@yahoo.com (yahoo)
(10:30 am to 5:30 pm Indian time, Monday to Friday)
-- Posted Monday, 3 December 2012 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
