-- Posted Monday, 10 December 2012 | | Disqus
· FOMC meeting this week is the key for commodities.
· Chinese higher industrial growth figures for November should result in further gains for base metals and silver.
General market conditions
We have the Federal Reserve meeting this week. This will be the key. Operation Twist announced in September 2012 by the Federal Reserve will end this month and more bond purchases could be announced at the FOMC meeting this week. The Eurozone and the UK have lowered their growth forecast for 2013 but that will not result in a bear trend in base metals. Stable US growth along with higher Chinese growth next year will result in higher base metal prices next year too.
A bit on making investments in 2013
The question in all forms of financial market investment which traders as well as analysts are trying to estimate is the pace of the rise and not the rise. Whether it is the every green gold and silver investments or the US dollar or selected stock investment the pace of rise or the pace of fall is being estimated using various analytical tools. Sunrise investments and sunset investments will be critical for 2013. For example Nokia and Blackberry were sunset investments in 2012 and whether they can become sunrise investment in 2013 remains to be seen. Natural gas became a sunset investment in early 2012 only to become a star performer after the first quarter of 2012. In India investments in Kingfisher airline stocks were sunset investments and whether in 2013 Kingfisher airlines stock shine or not remains to be seen. The solar sector has been riddled with over capacity in 2012 and there has been a big drag for solar sector stocks. It remains to be seen whether when this sector will shine. It will be all about making an early bird investment with a calculated risk. 2013 will be a transition phase for the global economy and it could be the last year for lower global interest rates if central banks act sensibly and are not dictated by whims and fancies of their political masters.
Traders will go on leave for Christmas and the New Year once the US fiscal cliff issues are resolved. Technically all commodities are bullish.
SPOT GOLD FORECAST FOR 2013
So far in 2012 gold has consolidated in $1520-$1800 range. In 2013 the trading range will be wider than 2012. Technically gold can rise to $2018 and $2326 in 2013 as long as it trades over $1488.20. However for all the bullish views gold needs trade over $1851 for a week for the higher price forecast to come true. Central bank buying and global interest rate scenario particularly after June 2013 will be the key to gold price direction.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Posted Monday, 10 December 2012 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com