-- Posted Monday, 24 December 2012 | | Disqus
MERRY CHRISTMAS
2012 review
The key themes for gold and silver were (A) Quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve and other central banks (B) European sovereign debt default (C) Central banks all over the world increasing their gold reserves (D) Weakness in emerging market currencies apart from the US presidential elections. Libya, Egypt, Syria, Afghanistan and other nations in the Middle East and North Africa were in political turmoil. It has been more than a year after a regime change in Egypt and still it is not peaceful. The mandate is clear, the NATO led change (whether directly through the use of force in Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan etc or indirectly by supporting/creating a rebellion opposition as in Syria, Egypt) has never resulted in peace and stability for the people of the nations. In fact their distress only increased after a NATO led regime change. The good thing about this year has been a somewhat stability in base metal prices and energy prices and an optimism that 2013 will be better for global peace and prosperity.
Gold prices consolidated between $1530-$1800 range while silver prices moved in a wider trading range. Indian gold prices neared a record Rs.33000 per ten grams due to a weaker currency. Base metal and energy trading were the safest for traders.
To err is human. Many a times our analysis bombarded. We got carried away by the momentum and hype and did not have faith in our own analysis. We would have been much more accurate this year had we had faith in our own analysis. We are not going to get carried by hype and momentum as our analytical models are good enough to get a very high accuracy rate. Further we strive to make the changes in our analytical models if it is of permanent type, test it on our own and later incorporate it on daily basis for the benefits of our clients.
I am not going to comment much on the markets. It’s time for every one of us to introspect to make our lives happier next year and also more profitable next year. Trading and investing should not be a bad word. All we need to do is to is not to repeat the mistakes of current year.
My experience in trading is concerned going short in copper and long in natural gas gave me good results. Trading in zinc-lead spreads were profitable. I never trade or invest in gold. I am an all time silver bull but returns in silver investments lagged behind in gold and Indian equity markets. But I intend to be a silver bull in 2013 as well. I just hope MCX starts “options” in 2013 as it will give silver investors more leverage. I also hope to see silver exchange traded funds in India as there are none at the moment. I am very eager for a silver ETF in India as it could derail gold asset under management (AUM) over the coming years. Platinum ETF in India are none in India but if not in 2013, Platinum ETF should be reality in 2014 in India. This is the first year in my analytical career that I have been a euro/usd bear and hope that this fantastic currency gives me the right signal to turn myself into a bull once again. Nickel could be the dark horse in 2013. Nickel prices have traded in a very narrow range and one should be prepared for wider trading ranges in 2013. Prices of agro commodities like Soybean, wheat, fruits and vegetables are in a long term bull run owing to manmade global warming and every growing global population. Fifteen percent to twenty percent fall in agro based commodities are a part and parcel of a long term bull rally and agro investors need to get used to get such fluctuations. 2013 should mark the beginning of “fresh water wars” and end to “energy war”. I am seeing signals of this happening, the common man will take time to see it.
A bit on my city Delhi – on delay in judgment for the brutal rapist
This incident shook the people of delhi. The Indian courts are still not giving their judgments when it is a prima facie case of brutal rape equivalent to murder. Delhi police have done their work but courts are taking their time. I compare this rape equal to Ajmal Kasab. When Ajmal Kasab took so many years to come to justice despite having all the video footages of his brutality towards the people of India, the guilty in the rape case in delhi could be given justice in the next decade. The reality in for the people of delhi and its neighbours Noida, Gurgaon, Ghaziabad and Faridabad which are a part of the National capital region (NCR) is that in late night one (whether male, female or children) cannot roam about in the streets. The so called police help line number of 100 goes unanswered most of the times. Delhi is still safe but its suburban towns are pathetic. (Please note that I believe that Delhi Police is the best people’s police in India but they most of them used are protecting our parliamentarians and instead of protecting the people of delhi.)
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Trading strategy for the very large traders and high risk traders
COMEX GOLD: Buy around $1639 stop loss $1615 for $1679-$1703
Jobbers need to watch $1663 and buy gold only if trades over $1663 for 1670-$1685
COMEX SILVER: Buy around $2920 stop loss $2840 for $3230 for next week
Jobbers watch $3002 and buy only if silver is able to trade over $3002
COMEX COPPER: Buy around $348 stop loss $343 for $362
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: Watch $90.50 and buy/sell only if crude oil trades below $90.50
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
Trade without emotions & Merry Christmas
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Posted Monday, 24 December 2012 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
