-- Posted Monday, 4 March 2013 | | Disqus

COMEX REPORT

• Unemployment in the euro zone jumped to a record 
• US Jan. construction drop first since last March
• Gold ETF liquidation continues as Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's top gold ETF, dropped to a nearly seven-month low of 1,254.49 tonnes on Feb. 28., finishing February with a record monthly outflow of 73.606 tonnes.
• Central banks including ECB, BOJ, BoE and RBA this week on policy will also affect gold and other commodity price movement.
• In case gold is able to trade over $1540 by Friday close the chances of $1630 and $1660 are higher.

There will be short covering in gold, silver, copper and crude oil before the ECB, BOE and BOJ central bank meetings as all are expected to continue with expansionary monetary policy. The surprise could be in the form of more quantitative easing by these central banks. We also have the US February private ADP numbers followed by US February nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These numbers have to beat street expectation for the US dollar to gain and for gold, silver to see another wave of selling. In case these numbers show signs of contraction then gold can rise to $1650 and silver can rise to $3200. However I am not buying gold and silver based on my above expectation as these are just probabilities and not actual.

I just wonder where the funds are being invested after the liquidation from gold ETF. My sense is that they are moving to far dated US treasuries where yields could beat returns from gold. This is just a short term trend in my view but may last for a few quarters.

Trade carefully as intraday volatility will be high.

Trading strategy for the very large traders and high risk traders

COMEX GOLD: Buy at $1541 stop loss $1525 for $1596-$1617. Jobbers buy gold only over $1583 (after 2:30 pm IST) for $1600-$1612 stop loss $1567

COMEX SILVER: Watch $2879 and Buy silver only if trades over $2879 after 2:30 pm IST for $2902-$2930 stop loss $2859

COMEX COPPER: Buy around $347 stop loss $343 for $353-$367

NYMEX CRUDE OIL: Buy at $89.10-$89.20 stop loss $88.40 for $92.20-$94.60

COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW

COMEX GOLD APRIL 2013 – current price $1582.20

Bullish over $1573.50 with $1598.20 and $1609.00 price target

Bearish below $1567.00 with $1559.90 and $1544.10 as price target

Neutral Zone between $1567.00-$1573.50

Break point: $1585.40

• Gold needs to trade over $1577.20 to target $1600-$1614
• On the lower side there will be investment demand below $1560 and only a fall below $1560 in US session any day will result in another wave of selling in gold.
• Just remember that gold has not traded below $1560 in US session over the past twelve months.

COMEX SILVER MAY 2013 – current price $2872.00

Bullish over $2849 with $2924-3080 as price target

Bearish below $2813 with $2791-$2773 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $2813-$2849

Break point: $2867.00

• Silver long term support is at $2701 and in case silver is able to trade over $2701 till Monday close, then the chances of a rise to $3200-$3200 are higher in March.
• Today silver needs to trade over $2813 to target $2990. There will be technical break down only if silver trades below $2801 in US session.

COMEX COPPER MAY 2013 – current price $349.95

Bullish over $346.40 with $357.30 -$363.40 as price target

Bearish below $343.30 with $339.00-$333.30 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $343.30-$346.40

Break point: $349.00

• $339 is the key long term support and as long as copper trades over $339 it will rise to $383 in short term.
• There will be a technical break down only if copper trades below $339 in US session.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1^ST CONTRACT)  - current price $90.68

Bullish over $92.20 with $94.80 and $97.60 as price target

Bearish below $91.20 with $90.30 and $89.40 as price target

Break point: $93.15

• $90.50 is the key long term support while $88.85 is the key short term support. As long as crude oil trades over $88.85-$90.50 zone the chances of $97-$99 are higher
• There will be another wave of selling if crude oil trades below $88.85 in US session.
• Remain on the sidelines.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Manan Somani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

Trade without emotions

"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT

COMEX GOLD – $15-$17

COMEX SILVER: $25-$30

COMEX COPPER: $3

NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60

SPOT SILVER: $0.25

SPOT GOLD: $15-$17

THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT

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-- Posted Monday, 4 March 2013 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com

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