-- Posted Tuesday, 11 June 2013 | | Disqus
· Gold key support is at $1380
· Silver key support is at $2076
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services revised the U.S. credit-rating outlook to stable from negative, indicating that the likelihood of a near-term downgrade of the rating is less than one in three. S&P also affirmed its AA+/A-1+ sovereign-credit ratings on the US. This did not have any impact on gold and silver or the US dollar. There is no major much US economic number today. It will be a technical trade. Gold needs to trade over $1370, silver needs to trade over $2070 and copper needs to trade over $319 to be in a bullish zone. There will be another wave of selling only below these prices.
The Indian government has said that there will be more measures to curb official gold imports into India. Indian demand for gold will not fall much. Gold will reach India and get consumed by unofficial means. The current weakness of the Indian rupee for me seems to be a deliberate attempt by the reserve bank of India to curb gold imports, other non essential imports and increase exports. This will result in a rise in short term inflation but can be controlled later by other means. Our view is that the Indian rupee will still fall to 50.00 against the US dollar in the next eighteen months. However it is difficult to predict where the current depreciation will stop as the markets believe that 62.00 against the US dollar could be reality in the short term. My experience as a currency trader and an analyst has been that expected price of the markets never comes, overshooting or undershooting is always there. So it will be either 59.80 or 63.90 for the Indian rupee to the US dollar. The current rupee weakness has scared one and all. Everyone is just concerned over the pace of the decline and not the decline. Yesterdays near one rupee weakness against the US dollar will never be liked by foreign portfolio investors and they will put on hold their short term investment plans in India. Long term foreign investors are taking advantage of a weaker currency.
What next for gold and silver
Just remain on the sidelines
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX SILVER JULY 2013 – current price $2179.50
Bullish over $2204 with $2276-2326 as price target
Bearish below $2176 with $2138-$2069 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $2176-$2204
Break point: $2176
- There will be another big wave of selling if silver trades below $2176 in the US session.
- Bullish trend will be there only on a break of $2230
- 6 month view: key long term support is at $1970 and silver still can rise to $2500-$2700 as long as it trades over $2500. There will be another big wave of selling if silver trades below $1970 in US session any day to $1495-$1200
COMEX COPPER JULY 2013 – current price $324.20
Bullish over $323.00 with $331.00 -$337.00 as price target
Bearish below $319.60 with $315.60-$310.60 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $319.60-$323.00
Break point: $319.60
- Key support is at $319.60 and there will be another wave of selling below $319.60
- Remain on the sidelines despite the bearish trend.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT) - current price $95.80
Bullish over $94.80 with $97.20 and $99.20 as price target
Bearish below $93.80 with $92.80 and $91.90 as price target
Break point: $96.80
- Crude oil can rise to $97.80-$100.80 as long as it trades over $94.80
- Only a consolidated fall below $94.80 will resume the downtrend.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Manan Somani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Posted Tuesday, 11 June 2013 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
