-- Posted Friday, 28 June 2013 | | Disqus
COMEX REPORT
- A daily close below $1210 will break the five year long term support for gold for $1155 and $989
- A daily close below $1970 will ensure that silver continues its overall bearishness in July.
- Copper and crude oil are in a neutral zone.
Momentum is bearish for gold and silver while technically oversold conditions exist. I hope just a weaker US dollar will lend support to gold and silver prices. Comments from Federal Reserve officials to soothe the US bond markets have failed to impact gold and silver.
Banks such as Citi, which had to retreat during the financial crisis, are now building up their commodities teams. The top five established players - Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Barclays and Deutsche Bank - face a challenge to their supremacy. I am more than confident that gold prices will once again start a slow and steady big long term bull run from the end of 2014. Between July 2013 and the end of 2014 intraday volatility will zoom. Hedge funds will continue to invest in commodities
Indian gold premiums have zoomed.
Why the current Indian rupee weakness has not benefitted Indian manufacturers – an example
“Air Cooler” parts are imported from China by “Air Cooler” manufacturers in and around the industrial belts in New Delhi. The weakness in the rupee has resulted in “Air Cooler” manufacturers stopping Chinese imports and buying products from the factories located in and around New Delhi region. However these factories are not increasing production capacity or employing more full time labor. The reason is that they fear is that once the Indian rupee falls back to 56.00-57.00 against the US dollar, it will be back to cheap Chinese imports by the “Air Cooler” manufacturers. This is just a one off example. There are a lot of labor intensive industries which despite benefitting from the current rupee depreciation but apprehensions still persist. The government has to have a clear policy direction on the current market movement so that the same can be used by import substituting industries in a much better way. Sole reliance on financial services industries based for US dollar inflows will result regular very sharp one way moves in the Indian rupee and will killing small scale industries.
What happens when a currency suddenly appreciates or depreciates very sharply
In case of sharp rupee depreciation: order cancellation from importers in favour of local manufacturers à importers loosing money or investments getting blocked
In case of sharp rupee appreciation: local manufacturers suddenly finds order vanishing like water vapor à forced closure of small scale units in extreme cases. Importers make hay buy good take time to arrive which leads to a sense of insecurity.
Remain on the sidelines.
Trading strategy for the very large traders and high risk traders
COMEX GOLD: Buy at $1140 stop loss $1115 for $1190-$1230. Jobbers use a sell on rise strategy as long as gold trades below $1223
COMEX SILVER: Buy around $1710-$1725 stop loss $1684 for $1970. Jobbers watch $1870
COMEX COPPER: Sell if and only if copper trades below $298.00
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: Sell at $97.80 stop loss $98.60 for $93.50-$92.20
GOLD AUGUST 2013 TECHNICAL LEVELS |
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$1,147.00 | $1,163.20 | $1,172.80 | $1,188.70 | $1,202.00 | $1,214.70 | $1,230.00 | $1,245.00 |
SILVER JULY 2013 TECHNICAL LEVELS |
SUPPORT | . |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$1,676.00 | $1,798.00 | $1,836.00 | $1,863.00 | $1,901.00 | $1,920.00 | $1,966.00 | $2,030.00 |
COPPER JULY 2013 TECHNICAL LEVELS |
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$288.70 | $296.50 | $299.20 | $302.75 | $307.80 | $312.30 | $317.00 | $323.00 |
CRUDE OIL (1st Contract) |
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$92.20 | $93.30 | $95.40 | $96.80 | $97.60 | $98.30 | $99.90 | $100.80 |
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD AUGUST 2013 – current price $1195.00
Bullish over $1230.00 with $1262.00 and $1296.00 price target
Bearish below $1210.0 with $1183.00 and $1155.00 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1210.00-$1230
Break point: $1203.00
- $1155 is the key long term support and gold needs to trade over $1155 to target $1220-$1260
- There will buyers only if gold trades over $1210
COMEX SILVER JULY 2013 – current price $1870.00
Bullish over $1870 with $1970-$2055 as price target
Bearish below $1830 with $1777-$1695 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $1830-$1870
Break point: $1874
- Silver needs to trade over $1870 to target $1970-$2050
- There will be sellers only if silver trades below $1830 in US session.
COMEX COPPER JULY 2013 – current price $304.45
Bullish over $302.00 with $312.00 -$322.00 as price target
Bearish below $297.60 with $292-$276 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $297.60.00-$302.00
Break point: $302.40
- Copper can rise to $312-$323 as long as it trades over $305
- There will be sellers only below $301.00
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT) - current price $97.14
Bullish over $95.60 with $98.20 and $100.20 as price target
Bearish below $93.10 with $92.20 and $89.90 as price target
Break point: $97.20
- Crude oil needs to break $98.25 else it will consolidate in $92.20-$99 zone.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Manan Somani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Posted Friday, 28 June 2013 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
