-- Posted Wednesday, 3 July 2013 | | Disqus
I was not a gold bull when I started insignia consultants in 2003. I remember having sold gold at $392 in 2004 only for stop losses to get triggered at $430. After this trade I became a gold bull. Gold has seen a major parabolic rise from 2009. People started thinking that gold prices were invincible and they just invested in gold at every price. The herd mentality and lure of easy money has brought gold down.
When gold ETFs were started I was always against ETF investing and even now I am against gold ETF investing. I prefer futures for short term trading and physical gold for long term investment. Even if you are long in physical gold at $1900 you need not worry as your price can come anytime after 2016. One just needs to have the patience. I remember having invested in a stock at Rs.200 per share in January 2012 (based on the advise of my broking house) and now that stock price is around Rs.40. Gold is far better than such crap investments. I know that the chances of my stock price getting to Rs.200 in a couple of years is very bleak.
Gold and silver are in a neutral zone. In the next four trading sessions gold will be either $1300/$1335 or $1155/$1079. There will be nothing in between. Markets are expecting a big decline in the US unemployment rate along with a rise in hiring. US economic numbers of June released so far confirm to the market expectation. All of a sudden the whole word wants to invest in the USA and it seems that recently lost faith in the US economy is now a thing of the past.
Tomorrow US markets are closed, electronic trade is open but there is holiday for the financial services sector due to upcoming US June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.
Crude oil has a technical break out and can rise to $108 in the very short term as long as it trades over $98.25. In my view the rise is due to increase in speculative interest on better growth in USA and Europe. If the US economic grows at the current pace and unemployment rates continues to fall then Nymex crude oil will rise to $153.60 in a the next one year.
Why India can never be a super power?
In the uttarakhand tragedy thousands of people have died. The government of India does not have the figures of the deaths or is not disclosing the same due to the huge numbers. Politicians from different states came and rescued people only from their states. There was no Indianness in all the politicians. In USA there only one thing exist which is “American”. Had the deaths been of certain religions which are minority in India, all the political parties would have curbed the regional divisions and lured them for the sake of votes. In USA there only one thing exist which is “American” there is no divide based on religion, case or creed. In fact film makers have to make cuts on their films on religion, region and even recently cuts were there for a profession. In USA there only one thing exist which is “American”. In short there is no Indianness among India politicians and Indian administrators. Most of the Indian political parties and politicians have only greed to be in power and rape the masses in different ways. Most highly educated Indians hardly vote and they consider voting days as just another holiday. If they started voting in big numbers hopefully India will get better elected representatives. (please note that I not a member of any political party and nor do have any bias towards any political party. I am only a nationalist Indian).
Remain on the sidelines. Oversold conditions still exist. Friday’s US June nonfarm payrolls will be the key. There can be more short covering in gold and silver before this number.
Trading strategy for the very large traders and high risk traders
COMEX COPPER: Sell at $323 stop loss $329 for $307-$303
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: Buy at 98.20-$98.80 stop loss $96.80 for $108.00
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX COPPER SEPTEMBER 2013 – current price $314.10
Bullish over $307.00 with $319.00 -$323.00 as price target
Bearish below $302.60 with $295-$291 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $302--$307.00
Break point: $311.00
- Crude oil needs to trade over $311 to target $319-$323
- There will be sellers only below $311.00
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT) - current price $102.00
Bullish over $100.29 with $104.75 and $108.10 as price target
Bearish below $98.25 with $96.80 and $94.60 as price target
Break point: $104.75
- Crude oil can rise to $104.75-$108.10 as long as it trades over $100.20
- There will be buyers on dips as long as crude oil trades over $98.25
MCX CRUDE OIL – prices in Indian rupees
Crude oil can rise to 6113-6365 as long as it trades over 5830. Today the real short covering will come in India. The all time high in MCX crude oil is at 6358 and it seems that 6365 will be breached anytime soon. Indians should be prepared for another more than Rs2.00 hike in petrol prices in a fortnight. We expect Indian petrol prices to Rs.100.00 per litre (before 31st March 2014) due to higher global prices and continued increase in global crude oil prices. The continued increase in disparity between petrol and diesel prices will result in more and more diesel vehicles being sold.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Manan Somani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
Trade without emotions
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Posted Wednesday, 3 July 2013 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
