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Asian Metals Market Update

By: Manan Somani, Insignia Consultants

-- Posted Tuesday, 23 July 2013 | | Disqus

·        Gold 50 day moving average is at $1333.60 and 100 day moving average is at $1428.60

·        Silver 50 day moving average is at $2103.15

·        Natural gas 200 day moving average is at $3.69

One day’s rise is a selling opportunity while two successive days of rise implies that there is some strength in the rise. This is a basic rule for all investments and is applicable to gold and silver also. Today’s US session is very crucial for gold and silver as they need a daily/today close over $1308 and $2040 to make the way for a sustained short term rise. Some of the traders just might use the current rise to exit short term investment in gold and silver.

Traders will either go long or square off their short positions before next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. They will prefer to sell gold as near to $1400. Gold will not find it easy to break past the 100 day MA at $1428.60 over the next few weeks. Breaking of the 100 day MA by gold could be a herculean task. However we still believe that for the rest of the year as long as gold trades over $1155 it will consolidate in $1155-$1236-$1448-$1594 range. There will be a long term technical break down only below $1155 or failure to break $1448 for the rest of the year.

Silver will be either $2376 or $1725 in the next three weeks. There will be nothing in between. For now metals have been aided by a weaker US dollar. Euro/usd is trading at 1.3187 and needs to trade over 1.3020 till end august to target 1.3475-1.3700. In case euro/usd is unable to trade over 1.3020 till end august the chances of a fall to $1.2775-1.2525 are very high. The real test for gold and silver will be if the US dollar gains.

Natural gas is a critical juncture as it needs to trade over $3.69 (200 day MA) for a big rise. There will be a technical break down below $3.69.

CFTC probes metal warehouses

The U.S. commodities market regulator has put Wall Street banks and other big traders on notice for a possible investigation of their metals warehousing businesses following years of complaints about inflated prices. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last week sent a letter to firms ordering them to preserve emails, documents and instant messages from the past three years, two sources who received the letters told Reuters. The letter is the latest effort from a newly emboldened CFTC, which has also led the charge on the Libor interest rate manipulation probe and more recently began reviewing millions of energy swap trades for possible violations of new rules. The enquiry could also raise pressure on the UK watchdog, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), which has regulatory oversight of the LME, to delve into the industry, sources said.

Our View: This is just sham and the CFTC cannot stop or reduce trading in commodities. The measures taken by CFTC will reduce intraday volatility and also reduce the pace of rise and not the rise. There will be few people made as scapegoats and enough time will be given to big banks and other large hedge funds to use some other loopholes in laws to manipulate commodity prices.

RBI tightens further Indian gold import norms

The RBI asked all nominated banks and agencies to export at least one-fifth of every lot of imported gold in all forms, and locally make it available only for jewelers. The central bank said banks need to retain 20 percent of the imported gold in customs bonded warehouses, and will only be able to further import gold after exporting at least 75 percent of the gold from those warehouses. Our View: Indians will not stop buying gold. Only smuggling will increase and more and more overseas Indian who come to India will bring gold to India (within prescribed limited).

COMEX GOLD AUGUST 2013 – current price $1335.20

Bullish over $1320.00 with $1355.00 and $1378.00 price target

Bearish below $1308.0 with $1297.00 and $1272.00 as price target

Neutral Zone between $1308.00-$1320

Break point: $1339.00

  • It will not be easy for gold to break the $1338-$1355 zone. In case gold does not break $1355 today then it will fall to $1308 and below.
  • We prefer buying only if trades over $1355.

MCX GOLD AUGUST 2013 – current price $2039.00

There is technical congestion between 27743-28056 and gold breaks this zone for another big rise. As long as gold does not break the 27743-28056 zone the chances of a fall to 26400 and 25700 are very high. Over the coming weeks only a break of 28056 will result in another big rise to 28875-30163. We are against long till gold does not break 28056.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Manan Somani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

Trade without emotions

"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."





COMEX GOLD – $15-$17





SPOT GOLD: $15-$17


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-- Posted Tuesday, 23 July 2013 | Digg This Article | Source:

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