-- Posted Tuesday, 3 September 2013 | | Disqus
· Syria will be the key
· Gold and silver are in a neutral zone
An increase in growth rates in the Eurozone, particularly in Italy and Spain will prevent gold from a big rise in the near term. We expect gold to trade in a $1296-$1372-$1396-$1529 range this month. Silver prices will remain firm as China stabilizes and the US and Europe grows. Big gains in gold and silver will be there either on (A) sustained war in Syria (B) there is evidence that tapering by the federal reserve will be shifted to December.
The world is witnessing a flight of capital from emerging markets to developed nations. This will result in higher physical gold demand from emerging markets (due to safe haven) and lower gold investment demand from developed nations. I do not foresee a big fall in emerging markets gold demand even if their economic activity shows signs of falling growth. In India there is huge speculation that the government will ask big Hindu temples (which have large gold stored) to sell the gold in the open market. I just hope that the current biased (towards other religions) UPA government does not play with the Hindu sentiments of the people of India.
Yesterday commodity prices in MCX rose on expectations that the rupee will weaken further today. Indian growth in the July to September quarter will only fall. Good monsoon will not translate into higher consumer spending in both rural India as well as urban India on there is a total failure on part of the UPA government to check prices to basic living essentials. I do not think that families with income over Rs.1 lac per month can spruce up the Indian economy. Indian growth will pick up from the October to December quarter due to festival season and also a cyclical period of falling prices of living essentials between November and February every year. From March 2014, it will be up to the government. In India there is a Maximum retail price (MRP) on every product sold. The current economic environment envisages an MRP policy on fruits, vegetables and other basic living essentials. Unless there is an MRP on basic living essentials in India, the poor and the middle class will just survive and/or may be start living on debt. Forget higher growth.
TODAY
Remain on the sidelines and watch for developments in USA.
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2013 – current price $1392.30
Bullish over $1392.00 with $1406.00 and $1426.00 price target
Bearish below $1378.0 with $1369.00 and $1349.00 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1378.00-$1392
Break point: $1392.00
- Gold needs to trade over $1390 to target $1406-$1422
- There will be another wave of selling only if gold trades below $1390 in US session with $1372 as the key support.
PHYSICAL GOLD PRICES IN INDIA – prices in Indian rupees below
As long as physical gold prices does not break Rs.35000 per ten grams, the chances of a fall to Rs.29,000-Rs.30,000 will be high. A break of Rs.35000 will result in Rs.37500 and Rs.42000
(prices of gold are price per ten grams of 24 carat purity)
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Manan Somani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Posted Tuesday, 3 September 2013 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
