-- Posted Friday, 6 September 2013 | | Disqus
Gold and silver fell after a sharp growth in the US services sector in August. It is not all over for gold and silver bulls as today’s US August nonfarm payrolls is the key. Jobs and only jobs is the key to Federal Reserve tapering. Technically gold needs to trade over $1348 to be in a short term bullish zone while silver needs to trade over $2260 to be in short term bullish zone. As long as gold trades over $1348 and silver trades over $2260 downside risk will be limited. One should use 2013 fall to invest in gold and silver for the long term. It is preferable to wait and watch for short term investment in gold and silver at current prices.
US economic numbers point to a stronger US dollar and a quicker pace of tapering by the Federal Reserve. Once the US August Nonfarm payrolls are over the focus will shift to Syria and the Federal reserve meeting. The key question which we will ask among ourselves is “what next after Syria and tapering by the Federal reserve”. The Syrian conflict can be over in a matter of days if Russia does not get involved. However if Russia does not get involved in Syria (where it has political interest) then it will be a case of “barking dog seldom bite” for Mr. Putin. In my view the focus will shift to emerging markets and emerging market growth from October onwards. Investors will be looking for a bottom formation in emerging markets and restart investing in emerging markets. Long term clues for bubble formation in US real estate market will also be closely watched from October. The UK and Eurozone will be watched for sustainability of growth. But in spite and despite everything the direction of global energy prices will be the key.
TECHNICAL VIEW
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT) - current price $108.40
Bullish over $108.10 with $110.70 and $114.20 as price target
Bearish below $107.10 with $105.40 and $102.20 as price target
Break point: $107.10
- Crude oil needs to trade over $107 to target $110.50-$112.00
- Failure of crude oil to break $112 by next week will result in a fall to $102 and $98
MCX NATURAL GAS (1ST CONTRACT) - current price Rs.239.50 (prices in Indian rupees below)
Six week view: Key resistance is at 282 and as long as Natural gas does not break 282 then chances of a fall to 215 and 196 are very high.
Intraday view: Natural gas needs to trade over 244 to target 252-259. There will be sellers as long as gas trades below 244 to 233-223.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Manan Somani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Posted Friday, 6 September 2013 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com