-- Posted Monday, 18 November 2013 | | Disqus
The region between $1242-$1296 is a no mans land for gold. The region between $1970-$2020 is a no mans land for silver. Gold and silver need to trade over $1242 and $1970 for the rest of the year, to be in a long term bullish zone. Only a daily close below $1242 and $1970 for four consecutive days will result in the next big sell off gold and silver. Crude oil has to fall below $89 and remain below $89 for a week to be in a long term bearish zone. The region between $89-$94 has a lot of a long term supports and medium term supports.
The big question for next year for base metals and energies will be whether the current price fall is a part of long term price correction or it is fundamental based on reduced demand outlook for next year. Over the past four years, base metals have generally risen in the months of December and January and it remains to be seen whether the trend continues this year too.
US lawmakers trying to manipulate gold
So far this year, 52 lawmakers lined up to cosponsor Texas Representative Kevin Brady’s “Sound Dollar Act,” which would require the Fed to keep prices stable by monitoring a variety of assets, including gold, and by tracking “the value of the United States dollar relative to gold.”
In April, three days after gold completed its worst two-day decline in more than 30 years, Lee, joined by Senators Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky, proposed legislation to eliminate taxes on gold and silver currency declared legal tender by federal or state governments. The measure would effectively allow the metals, now taxed at sale as collectibles, to serve as alternative currencies.
(More at this link http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-14/republicans-asserting-reliance-on-gold-as-world-loses-confidence.html)
Our view on the above: The global investor and the global central bankers are not idiots. They know that the purchasing power of the US dollar, euro and other global currencies is on the decline. Long term volatility of currencies also affects central bankers as they need to protect the value of their foreign exchange reserves. Even gold price fluctuations affect central bankers. Earlier central bankers had a dilemma of the US dollar. Now they have to face another dilemma of subdued gold prices. In my view central banks will resort to more and more bilateral trade with the long term differences being settled in physical gold. Gold will continue to attract central bankers. The common man might just need to be a bit careful while investing in gold if the US lawmakers have their way.
The next five years could be a transition phase on how the world looks at the US dollar/currencies and gold. New political friends are being made. There are no foes among nations in the world (except Asia). The political adjustment which is happening in the world will affect everyone. Central bankers will make policies based on the need of their nations. For example, India has reduced buying crude oil from Iran due to pressure from its new friend USA. This despite the fact, India can reduce its reliance on US dollar imports from nations such as Iran where payments can be made in non US dollar forms. There are a lots and lots examples I can give. Just remember change implies higher volatility.
TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX COPPER SEPTEMBER 2013 – current price $316.90
Bullish over $317.60 with $324.00 -$331.00 as price target
Bearish below $311.20 with $307.90-$302.80 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $311.20--$317.60
Break point: $311.20 & 317.70
- Key weekly support is at $311.20 and copper needs to trade over $311.20 to prevent another sell off to $302.80 and $295.60
- We prefer a buy on dips strategy as long as copper trades over $302
MCX COPPER NOVEMBER – prices in Indian rupee below
- Key support is at 439.50 and a fall below 439.50 will result in 435.60 and 431.50.
- Copper needs to trade over 439.50 for the whole week on daily closing basis to be in bullish zone.
- Only a consolidated break of 446.10 will resume the bullish zone
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Manan Somani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
Trade without emotions
"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
Customer care: 9311139549
You can also mail your queries at insigniacommodity@gmail.com
Chat Id: mcxsuretips@gmail.com (gtalk), insigniaconsultants@yahoo.com (yahoo)
(10:30 am to 5:30 pm Indian time, Monday to Friday)
-- Posted Monday, 18 November 2013 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
