-- Posted Thursday, 12 December 2013 | | Disqus
The US economic data vacuum will be over with the release of the US November retail sales number. If the numbers disappoint, then gold and silver will see another wave of rise. Copper and base metals seem to have formed a medium term bottom in November and can rise another ten percent in the short term. Crude oil needs to trade over $96.00 on daily closing basis for the rest of December to target $102-$109.
Gold and silver are in a neutral zone wherein they need to trade over $1249 and $2022 today and till next Wednesday to target $1310 and $2300. If copper prices remain firm, then silver will consolidate to remain firm even if gold falls. The next week could start another big bull run or another big bear run. Traders and investors are already heavily short in gold and silver and the rally (if any) will be massive.
In my view long term investors are now thinking of exiting their long positions or investment in gold and silver in India. In my view they are wrong as physical gold premiums remain firm as long as gold prices trade in a $1170-$1430 trading band. Long term gold investors should forget their gold investments for 2014. I expect gold and silver prices to start another bull rally from the middle of 2015. Patience for another eighteen months will be the key for long term gold and silver investors. In fact long term gold and silver investors can look for a bottom next year and increase their gold holdings. If global economic growth picks up next year then I expect silver to outperform gold by a huge margin.
Expected imposition of the Volcker rule could be the reason for a rise in gold and silver as banks exit their short positions. Traders will now start taking position for tomorrow’s November US retail sale numbers which could be the catalyst for the Federal Reserve meeting week tapering decision. The next three days are very crucial for gold and silver for the short term directional trend. Gold needs to trade over $1252 and silver needs to trade over $2008 till Friday for another set of gains. For now cautious optimism is all I can say.
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD FEBRUARY 2014 – current price $1254.40
Bullish over $1252.00 with $1268.90 and $1292.40 price target
Bearish below $1239.00 with $1225.80 and $1217.00 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1239.00-$1252
Break point: $1239.50 & $1252.80 & $1268.9
- There is a technical congestion between $1268 and $1273 and a break of this zone will result in $1292 and $1315
- In case gold does not break $1273 by tomorrow then it will fall to $1243 and $1223 first and then rise.
MCX GOLD FEBRUARY 2014 – prices in Indian rupee below
Seven day view: Failure to break 29912 in the next seven trading sessions will result in a fall to 28935 and 28475. Key long term support is at 28475 and gold could trade in 28475-29176-29912 range as long as gold does not break 29912.
Today view: Gold needs to fall below 29389 or break 29699 for direction. Better to remain on the sidelines.
Global investors will now be looking forward to policy changes made by the government and its impact on government deficit. Pre election volatility will be felt in the Indian rupee against the US dollar in the next six months.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Manan Somani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Posted Thursday, 12 December 2013 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
