-- Posted Wednesday, 18 December 2013 | | Disqus
It is not the tapering by the Federal Reserve that is important for the markets. Rather, it is the outlook of 2014’s monetary stance that will dictate the markets till early January. All of us are interest in knowing whether Federal Reserve has the will to move away from zero interest rate spiral next year. To me the key theme for 2014 among investors will be (a) Whether central banks are able to move away from zero interest rate spiral (b) Whether emerging markets are able to contain/stabilize food price inflation (c) Whether emerging markets are able to stabilize debt to GDP ratio. (a fall in debt to GDP ratio in emerging markets will be much better for global growth) (d) Whether Chinese yuan is able to increase its share in global trade and services. (e) How emerging markets will be able to cope with a sharp rise in global energy price (if any)?
If there is any indication that central banks are not able to move away from excess monetary regime, then gold, silver and other safe havens will see the return of another bull run.
The $1210-$1238-$1259-$1273 consolidation range will be broken in gold soon and a new range will be formed. Be prepared for very big moves in gold and silver any time. In Silver even if the Federal reserve tapers and silver crashes, still we will prefer to use a buy on sharp dips strategy as long as silver trades over $1810-$1866 zone for the rest of the month.
Copper needs to break $344 in the next three weeks, else it will fall back to $319 and $315 and then rise. Crude oil needs to trade over $96.00 for the rest of the week to be in bullish zone.
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX SILVER MARCH 2014 – current price $1988.50
Bullish over $1949.00 with $2020-$2088 as price target
Bearish below $1925 with $1905.40-$1896 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $1925-$1949.50
Break point: $1988.00-$2020
- Silver needs to trader over $1988 today to target $2080
- Silver will crash if and only if copper and gold both fall.
MCX GOLD FEBRUARY 2014 – prices in Indian rupees below
There is a technical congestion between 28300-28465 and gold needs to trade over this zone to target 29047-29360. There will be another wave of selling if and only if gold trades below 28300. In case gold opens below 28300 tomorrow (after the FOMC announcement), then the chances of a fall to 27485 will be very high.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Manan Somani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Posted Wednesday, 18 December 2013 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com