-- Published: Thursday, 20 February 2014 | Print | Comment
Today's close and tomorrow's close are very important for gold and silver
Federal reserve January minutes of meeting showed that there was lack of unanimity over the future course of tapering. Some of the Federal reserve members even questioned the continuing of the pace of tapering. This should be bullish for gold and silver.Now it brings us back the question is whether tapering was done by ex federal reserve chairman Ben Bernanke just to restore the credibility of the central bank. All through 2013 the basic theme was tapering by the global markets. Over the next two months, policy continuity by the Federal reserve will be the key for global financial markets.
I expect a big pick up US manufacturing employment In March. Easter vacations are in April. I expect Easter sales in Europe and USA to act as a big stimulator for another round of growth. Obviously factories will produce more and employ more people in anticipation of good Easter sales.
Chinese HSBC PMI fell to its lowest level in three seven months. Base metals will trade with a softer bias as a result of the same.
In case spot gold does not break $1354 by 19th March, then it will fall back to $1272 and $1230. Silver needs to break $2250 by 19th March for another set of rise. In case silver does not break $2250 by 19th March, then it will fall back to $1994 and $1880.
TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD MARCH 2014 � current price $1311.60
Bullish over $1311.00 with $1347 and $1363.15 price target
Bearish below $1303.00 with $1296.10 and $1282.00 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1303.00-$1311
Break point: $1314.00
Gold can fall to $1292 if it does not break $1339 by Monday.
There will be sellers only if gold trades below $1314 either in the UK session or the US session to $1292 and below
MCX GOLD APRIL-- prices in Indian rupees
30 day view: Failure to break 30750 will result in a fall to 28515 and 27956.
Today's view: Gold can fall to 29560 and 29160 as long as it trades below 30060. Only a consolidated break of 30060 will result in further gains to 30279 and 30560.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)- current price $103.10
Bullish over $102.60 with $104.50 and $107.20 as price target
Bearish below $101.70 with $99.90 and $98.40 as price target
Break point: $102.80
One needs to trade very carefully between $102.50 and $106.10. Crude oil has to break and trade over the $102.50-$106.10 zone in the short term for another set of gains. In case crude oil does not break $106.10 in the next month, then it will fall to $92.20 and $87.60
On a fundamental view, there is no reason for crude oil to trade over $100.00. We believe that crude oil should trade below $90.00 on fundamentals.
Three month view: In the next three months crude oil needs to break $120 else it will fall to $85.00 and $79.00
Disclaimer:Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Manan Somani
Disclosure:Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
UK session starts around 2:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 7pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD � $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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