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Asian Metals Market Update

By: Manan Somani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Tuesday, 25 February 2014 | Print  | Disqus 

In the month of March gold needs to break and trade over $1360 for at least four consecutive days to get a real push. Medium term investors will be cautious going long between $1360 and $1430. Rather I expect profit taking by medium term gold investors between the $1360 and $1430 zone (if gold is able to reach $1360+). Silver is still not of the woods yet. It needs to break and trade over $2310 in March for another set of rise. As long as silver does not break and trade over $2310, cautious optimism will prevail among investors.  Silver March futures are expiring on Friday. Profit taking before close can drag silver down.

US consumer confidence numbers will be the key. An above expectation number could be the trigger for some profit taking in gold and silver. The US dollar has been weak through the year. On a fundamental basis, the greenback is undervalued against the euro and cable. We expect the US dollar to gain in March against the euro and cable. The Eurozone economy though improving still has shaky fundamentals. A strong US dollar in March (if any) is the one key risk for continuance of a bull run of gold and silver in March 2014.

Physical demand will vanish if gold and silver prices show signs of forming a short term top. Rather new short positions could rise in a massive way if there are any signs of a correction. I will prefer buying far dated put options in gold and silver as a hedge against long positions.


COMEX GOLD MARCH 2014 – current price $1335.60

Bullish over $1335.00 with $1347 and $1363.00 price target

Bearish below $1327.00 with $1319 and $1307.60 as price target

Neutral Zone between $1327.00-$1335

Break point: $1335

  • Gold needs to trade over $1330 today to target $1347-$1358
  • There will be sellers only if gold trades below $1330 either in UK session or US session to $1314 and $1298

MCX GOLD APRIL 2014 - prices in Indian rupees below

Key resistance is at 30327 and only a break of 30327 will result in further gains to 30607-30716. In case gold does not break and trade over 30327 today then it will fall to 29960 and 29790 first. Initial support is at 30096.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Manan Somani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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UK session starts around 2:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 7pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)




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