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Asian Metals Market Update

By: Manan Somani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Wednesday, 26 February 2014 | Print  | Disqus 

Gold looks headed for $1360 as long as it trades over $1330. The longer gold trades over $1300, the more it will attract short term investors into gold. Silver needs to trade over $2160 to be in a bullish zone. Economic news from different parts of the world are not that encouraging suggesting a big change in interest rate status. A mild Chinese slowdown has resulted in subdued base metal prices. There will be a pause in the Indian Hindu marriage season from next week, only to start in April. People who have planned summer marriages will be using any March and mid April dip in gold prices (if any) to go buy jewelry as well as physical gold. Traders will now start taking position for next week's February US nonfarm payrolls. I expect mild profit taking in gold and silver (from the highs) just before the release of US nonfarm payrolls.

US consumers demand higher caratage of gold

In a major benefit for Indian jewelry manufacturers and exporters, consumers in the United States have shifted to higher caratage of gold in the diamond-studded ornaments. The primary objective of the shift is to have high resale value after initial pain to cough more money at the time of purchase. Now consumers are demanding gold content of 14, 18 and 19 carat in diamond jewelry instead of 9 carat earlier.  The change in United States consumers’ behavior will benefit India more than any other country being around 38% of United States jewelry consumption is sourced from India. The United States constitutes of around 40% of the world jewelry consumption and hence, the global manufacturers, retailers and exporters always look for a share in the pie.

Our view: This should result in more and more small and medium sized jewelry houses to export more without incurring any additional capital expenditure.

The key will be the direction of energy prices in March and April. The longer energy prices remain firm the longer gold and silver bull run will continue.


COMEX SILVER MARCH 2014 – current price $2186.00

Bullish over $2184 with $2215 and $2263 as price target

Bearish below $2164 with $2148-$2084 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $2164-$2184

Break point: $2194

  • Silver needs to trade over $2164 to target $2225-$2274
  • There will be sellers if and only if silver trades below $2164 either in US session or UK session

MCX COPPER FEBRUARY 2014  - prices in Indian rupees below

Intraday View: key support is between 439-441.50 and there will be another wave of selling only this zone. As long as copper trades over 439-441.50 zone, it can rise to 449-453. Intermediate resistance is at 445.90. Short term investors need to wait and watch copper till Monday before taking a call.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Manan Somani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

Trade without emotions

"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."


UK session starts around 2:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 7pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)




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